084
FXUS62 KTAE 290021
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
721 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 713 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
- DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, MAINLY EAST OF
TALLAHASSEE. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO
SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
- AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER, SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND LASTING FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD WEATHER SHELTERING WILL NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 713 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEAR NECESSARY.
FOG IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
OVERNIGHT, AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES BEFORE SUNSET
SHOWED A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SEA FOG OVER APALACHEE BAY.
THEREFORE, WE'VE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND WITH THE ANTICIPATION THAT DENSE FOG WILL
OVERSPREAD THAT AREA THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING A TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. BEGINNING MONDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA ON THAT DAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER. A BRIEF
LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE NORTH OF
A DOTHAN TO ALBANY LINE. SOME AREAS WILL REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA (WIND CHILL READING OF 20 DEGREES OR LOWER IN AL AND GA AND
25 OR LOWER IN FL). TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S INLAND. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT AFTER THAT, IT
WILL STILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS.
BY THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN, BUT
ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES THIS TIME AROUND. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE WEEK BRINING WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY, BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE WITH LATER TAF
PACKAGES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SEA FOG PERSISTING
EAST OF APALACHICOLA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE RAPIDLY AND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND IT. SOME GALE-FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
THROUGH TODAY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND
IT. ALTHOUGH BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPER SOME FIRE
CONCERNS, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RHS IN THE 20%-30% RANGE
COULD BRING SOME FIRE CONCERNS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
FOG CONCERNS AND OTHER REMARKS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND, PRIMARILY EAST OF TALLAHASSEE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN DROUGHT WITH PORTIONS OF THE FL
BIG BEND STILL SUFFERING FROM EXTREME DROUGHT. WHILE SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE MUCH CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM EITHER.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 62 72 34 51 / 0 50 0 0
PANAMA CITY 64 72 34 52 / 30 40 0 0
DOTHAN 61 67 30 47 / 30 30 0 0
ALBANY 61 69 30 49 / 10 30 0 0
VALDOSTA 60 74 32 51 / 0 60 0 0
CROSS CITY 58 76 35 56 / 0 20 0 0
APALACHICOLA 63 70 36 51 / 10 30 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR FLZ015-018-019-
027>029-034-115-118-127-128-134-426.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ751-752-770-772.
UPDATE...DVD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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