258
FXUS62 KTAE 030217
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
917 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 917 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR GUSTY WINDS, BRIEF TORNADOES, AND LARGE
HAIL.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST BREEZES SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY FOR THE WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 917 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
CURRENT TRENDS ARE TRACKING WELL WITH THE FORECAST, SO NO CHANGES
ARE COMING THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE REGION TODAY,
HOWEVER IT IS BEING DISRUPTED BY OUR NEXT UPCOMING SYSTEM. HIGH
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED WEST OF THE FLINT/APALACHICOLA RIVERS
TODAY. TONIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WITH THE
LOWER TEMPS EXPECTED EAST OF THE FLINT/APALACHICOLA RIVERS.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE
MAY BE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. AS WE
MOVE FORWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SE ALABAMA AND SW
GEORGIA. WHAT'S INTERESTING IS THAT WE EXPECT LAPSE RATES ABOVE
6C/KM WITH LONG STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS. THESE ARE A GOOD
INDICATOR FOR LARGE HAIL. BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALL THIS TO
SAY, THE SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF
5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE WITH SRH
BETWEEN 200-300 M2/S2 DURING THE MORNING HOURS, THAT IF INCREASED
INSTABILITY WERE TO ALIGN AT THAT TIME, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO TO DEVELOP. THERE ISN'T A
CONSENSUS AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME, BUT IT'S SOMETHING
TO WATCH OUT FOR. AGAIN, THE MAIN IMPACTS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND SEVERE HAIL; A BRIEF WEAK
TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE TIMING FOR STORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE MORNING. INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE
INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE POPS CHANCES WILL BE
THE HIGHEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH AND CLEAR OUT
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S. WHEN THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS EAST ONTO THE
ATLANTIC, OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
THE AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA ALONG A SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MAKE A MORE SOLID PUSH SOUTH
TOWARD THE TERMINALS DURING DAYLIGHT ON SATURDAY, IGNITING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. SO AFTER
HOLDING STEADY THIS EVENING, CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO IFR AND MVFR
RANGES ON SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO, A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL SET UP LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, PARTICULARLY AT DHN AND ABY.
ECP, TLH, AND VLD COULD BE IN PLAY IF SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
BACKED IN DIRECTION THAN FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 917 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AND BECOME STRONG ON
SATURDAY MORNING, IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
BY TO THE NORTH, BECOMING EASTERLY BY EARLY MONDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY
NIGHT. ONCE IT IS SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY, A TURN TO
SOUTHERLY BREEZES IS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY FOR ALL DISTRICTS WITH CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN
GREATER THAN 85%. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WINDS MAY ALSO BE ERRATIC IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY, WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTHERLY WITH TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. MINRH VALUES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT AROUND 50-60 PERCENT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 917 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY, IN
ADVANCE OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD. FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION, THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS (BOUNDED BY
25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE VALUES) ARE IN THE 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH RANGE.
MOST GUIDANCE POINTS TO AN EAST-WEST STRIPE OF EVEN HEAVIER RAIN,
MOST LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE INLAND FL PANHANDLE EAST ACROSS
FAR SOUTH GA, OR PERHAPS CLOSER TO THE FL/GA BORDER. WITHIN THIS
HEAVIER STRIPE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES.
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, THIRSTY SOILS, AND LOW RIVER LEVELS,
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE SPOTTY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WOULD BRING SOME LOCALIZED DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT. FOR
EVERYONE ELSE, THIS ROUND OF RAIN WILL AMOUNT TO TREADING WATER AT
A TIME OF YEAR WHEN WE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SHOULD BE PICKING UP
ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN EACH WEEK.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 54 72 52 67 / 10 90 40 0
PANAMA CITY 60 71 53 67 / 20 90 30 0
DOTHAN 57 74 48 65 / 50 80 20 0
ALBANY 52 71 47 65 / 30 80 30 0
VALDOSTA 52 71 49 65 / 10 90 50 0
CROSS CITY 53 74 54 69 / 0 80 70 0
APALACHICOLA 59 70 54 64 / 10 80 50 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-
115.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ751-
752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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