816
FXUS62 KTAE 031401
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
901 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 851 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THERE
IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
LOW CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A TORNADO
OR TWO.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST BREEZES SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY FOR THE WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 851 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS OF LATE MORNING.
WHILE SOME ACTIVITY HAS EXHIBITED ROTATION, SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY IS LACKING AT THIS TIME. THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
AS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TODAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A TORNADO OR TWO. NO CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST MORE OFTEN THAN NOT TODAY. A FEW OF
THOSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT A TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MOST OF THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO HAPPEN
BETWEEN 10AM EST/9AM CST THROUGH ABOUT 7PM EST/6PM CST, WITH ONE OR
TWO LINGERING BEYOND THAT INTO THE SE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS EVENING.
A ROBUST H5 SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SEEN OVER NORTHERN TEXAS THIS
MORNING ON WATER VAPOR. THIS SHORTWAVE RACES OUR WAY TODAY AND WILL
SPARK AT LEAST TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT PASSES THE
AREA. THE FIRST ROUND IS BLOSSOMING EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN H85 JET
MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE'S NOT MUCH INSTABILITY AROUND THIS MORNING
WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY (SRH) WILL BE A BIT HIGHER, OR AROUND 200 M2/S2, WHICH IS
ENOUGH TO SPARK A STRONG STORM OR TWO, ALTHOUGH THAT CHANCE IS
RATHER LOW.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION AS THE H5 SHORTWAVE NEARS THE AREA AND
CAUSES HEIGHTS TO FALL. TRUTHFULLY, THIS ROUND IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN AS A LOT OF IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THIS MORNING'S ROUND
EVOLVES AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. THAT SAID, THERE
IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THIS ROUND, OR AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG, BUT 0-3KM SRH WILL BE A BIT LOWER, OR LESS THAN 150
M2/S2. THAT COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SHOULD LEAD TO
MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER, A TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH ANY POTENTIAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION.
GIVEN SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INTERACT, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR
ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
ANOTHER THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE RAIN POTENTIAL. OVERALL,
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.25" AND 0.75". HOWEVER,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS TODAY AS THE FLOW IS
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. COUPLE THIS WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) NEAR OR
EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JANUARY AND THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. IN FACT, THE HREF DOES HAVE A
LOW (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) PROBABILITY OF PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA OF PICKING UP MORE THAN 3" OF
RAIN. IF THIS FALLS OVER MORE URBAN AREAS, IT COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT
MOSEYING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. FOG AND/OR A LOW
STRATUS DECK IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
THE COLD FRONT MOSEYS THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND COULD
LEAD TO A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MOISTURE MAY LINGER
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA, AT THE VERY LEAST OUR GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BIG BEND COUNTIES,
MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HAVE BLENDED IN A BIT OF THE CONSSHORT WITH THE NBM TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL.
OUR REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN H5 RIDGE PARKED
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE
EAST OF US WILL ALLOW FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND, WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE H85 RIDGE NEARBY, COULD LEAD TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOGGY MORNINGS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NOT SUPER CONFIDENT
TO PUT IT IN THE GRIDS THAT FAR OUT, BUT THE SIGNAL IS THERE FOR
ANOTHER FOGGY STRETCH OF WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY CLIMB
INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO START THE
WEEK BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 50S BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING,
SO HAVE UPDATED TAFS TO REFLECT THAT. ALSO, REFINED SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORM TIMING TO FIT WITH LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE, SO MAINLY
CENTERED ON LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. THAT SAID, A
VERY ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE, WITH THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE
FOR THAT HAPPENING BEING NEAR KECP. OTHERWISE, MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT CRAWLS
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. THE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER ARRIVING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN IFR, MAYBE LIFR, STRATUS DECK THAT MAY
LOWER TO BE FOG OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE WASN'T SUPER HIGH IN THE
LIMITED VISIBILITY DUE TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS, BUT THE IFR
CLOUD DECK IS OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND REFLECTED IN THE TAFS.
FUTURE TAFS MAY LOWER CEILINGS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 123 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH
ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS FORECAST WEST OF APALACHICOLA AND CAUTIONARY
WINDS TO THE EAST. SEVERAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND SOME OF THEM COULD BE STRONG WITH
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS, HAIL, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISH TO LIGHT TO MODERATE. MORE FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 123 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING SEVERAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
FORTUNATELY, THIS FRONT IS VERY LIKELY TO BRING A WETTING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LEAD TO
POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSIONS SUNDAY AND MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
DISPERSIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL FOG CONCERNS MAY MATERIALIZE LATER THIS WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 123 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 0.25"
AND 0.75". HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JANUARY. COUPLE THAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS WITH THE MEAN FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) OF A FEW AREAS PICKING UP
MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN. THE HREF HIGHLIGHTS AREAS IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THAT
OCCURRING. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OVER OUR MORE URBAN AREAS COULD LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE
FLOODING.
DRY CONDITIONS TAKE OVER SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 52 64 47 / 90 40 0 0
PANAMA CITY 71 53 65 49 / 90 40 0 0
DOTHAN 74 49 64 45 / 80 20 0 0
ALBANY 73 48 63 44 / 80 30 0 0
VALDOSTA 71 49 62 44 / 100 50 0 0
CROSS CITY 74 53 66 46 / 90 50 0 0
APALACHICOLA 70 54 63 51 / 90 50 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ751-752-
770-772.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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