172
FXUS62 KTAE 032353
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
653 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 653 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST BREEZES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WATERS WEST OF
APALACHICOLA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THE AMOUNT OF BULK LAYER SHEAR HAS DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING
BUT THE LOW AND MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED AS TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE WARMED TO THE LOW 70S. THE THREATS OF STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSES LATER THIS EVENING. THE TORNADO THREAT WAS ALWAYS LOW
BUT IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. THE SPC HAS THE ENTIRE
REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
THE STORM MOTION IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR
TRAINING STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ABOVE 2" ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN
SOME LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS WON'T LEAD TO WIDESPREAD OR RIVERINE
FLOODING, THERE COULD BE SOME NUISANCE PONDING IN URBAN/LOW-LYING
AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING, CLEARING OUT THE REMAINING
SHOWERS/STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY FOG TO
LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NBM
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-60S AND LOW 40S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER
WITH A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DRIFTING EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION. DURING THIS TIME, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW MANY MORNINGS WE CAN EXPECT IT TO DEVELOP BEFORE THE
SURFACE HIGH EXITS. IT'LL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC, OUR WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, THERE LOOKS TO BE A LARGE TROUGH
WITH AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COUNTRY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
AND IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT ARE UNCERTAIN. POPS FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY AROUND 30-40 PERCENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND PROVIDE UPDATES AS THE SYSTEM SETS UP.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR THE FL STATE LINE
RIGHT NOW. IT IS STILL ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN HAS EXITED ALL TERMINALS, AND IT WILL
EXIT BEYOND THE VICINITY OF VLD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
AFTER THAT, POST-FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA SUGGEST THAT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS WILL HAVE IFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
EVEN SIGNALS IN GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE FOR ABY
AND VLD DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, ENDING AS MOISTURE BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW. FINALLY AFTER ABOUT 16Z-18Z, CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT. WHAT
IS MOST UNCERTAIN IS HOW SOON AFTER THAT SCATTERING WILL TAKE
PLACE. FOR THE MOST PART, HAVE HELD OFF ON SCATTERING UNTIL MID-
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ALONG THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN OUR WATERS WEST
OF APALACHEE BAY, WITH CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. THESE
STORMS CAN PRODUCE ERRATIC WINDS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 34 KTS, AND HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF WATERSPOUTS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BY MONDAY AND BE TRANQUIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
BENEFICIAL RAIN HAS FALLEN AND/OR WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER ALL
DISTRICTS TODAY. FOR DISTRICTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10, RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED 1" IN SOME LOCATIONS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW.
THERE IS ALSO A HAIL THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. FOLLOWING TODAY'S
COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY
MONDAY. DISPERSIONS ON SUNDAY WILL BE POOR FOR MOST DISTRICTS
SOUTH OF I-10, AND LOW IN OUR AL AND GA DISTRICTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ALL AROUND LOW DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOLLOWING THE FRONT WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EACH MORNING FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
ONGOING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE REPORTS OF 2+
INCHES FOR LOCATIONS IN WALTON COUNTY FROM THIS MORNING. THE
CURRENT SET UP SHOWS THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS.
WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF .25 - .75 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE NUISANCE
FLOODING FROM THE TRAINING STORMS BUT, WIDESPREAD OR RIVERINE
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ALL THIS RAIN IS BENEFICIAL HOWEVER,
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE STILL ONGOING. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 51 64 46 68 / 40 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 53 65 49 68 / 30 0 0 0
DOTHAN 49 64 45 67 / 20 0 0 0
ALBANY 48 63 43 67 / 30 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 48 62 43 68 / 50 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 53 66 46 73 / 60 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 54 63 52 65 / 40 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ751-752-
770-772.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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