854
FXUS62 KTAE 040232
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
932 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 932 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST BREEZES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WATERS WEST OF
APALACHICOLA.
- UNEVENTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL STARTING MONDAY
NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 932 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
THE THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS IS LONG GONE. THE
EVENING UPDATE WAS FOCUSED ON RAIN CHANCES BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY AND AREAS OF FOG TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE REGION. SOME OF THE FOG COULD
ACTUALLY COME AS DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT, UNTIL MOISTURE BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW AROUND SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THE AMOUNT OF BULK LAYER SHEAR HAS DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING
BUT THE LOW AND MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED AS TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE WARMED TO THE LOW 70S. THE THREATS OF STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSES LATER THIS EVENING. THE TORNADO THREAT WAS ALWAYS LOW
BUT IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. THE SPC HAS THE ENTIRE
REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
THE STORM MOTION IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR
TRAINING STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ABOVE 2" ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN
SOME LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS WON'T LEAD TO WIDESPREAD OR RIVERINE
FLOODING, THERE COULD BE SOME NUISANCE PONDING IN URBAN/LOW-LYING
AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING, CLEARING OUT THE REMAINING
SHOWERS/STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY FOG TO
LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NBM
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-60S AND LOW 40S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER
WITH A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DRIFTING EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION. DURING THIS TIME, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW MANY MORNINGS WE CAN EXPECT IT TO DEVELOP BEFORE THE
SURFACE HIGH EXITS. IT'LL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC, OUR WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, THERE LOOKS TO BE A LARGE TROUGH
WITH AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COUNTRY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
AND IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT ARE UNCERTAIN. POPS FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY AROUND 30-40 PERCENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND PROVIDE UPDATES AS THE SYSTEM SETS UP.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR THE FL STATE LINE
RIGHT NOW. IT IS STILL ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN HAS EXITED ALL TERMINALS, AND IT WILL
EXIT BEYOND THE VICINITY OF VLD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
AFTER THAT, POST-FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA SUGGEST THAT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS WILL HAVE IFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
EVEN SIGNALS IN GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE FOR ABY
AND VLD DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, ENDING AS MOISTURE BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW. FINALLY AFTER ABOUT 16Z-18Z, CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT. WHAT
IS MOST UNCERTAIN IS HOW SOON AFTER THAT SCATTERING WILL TAKE
PLACE. FOR THE MOST PART, HAVE HELD OFF ON SCATTERING UNTIL MID-
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 932 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY BREEZES. WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND ON SUNDAY, BECOMING
EASTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH. A RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUESDAY.
ITS POSITION SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A TURN TO SOUTHWEST
BREEZES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
BENEFICIAL RAIN HAS FALLEN AND/OR WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER ALL
DISTRICTS TODAY. FOR DISTRICTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10, RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED 1" IN SOME LOCATIONS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW.
THERE IS ALSO A HAIL THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. FOLLOWING TODAY'S
COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY
MONDAY. DISPERSIONS ON SUNDAY WILL BE POOR FOR MOST DISTRICTS
SOUTH OF I-10, AND LOW IN OUR AL AND GA DISTRICTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ALL AROUND LOW DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOLLOWING THE FRONT WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EACH MORNING FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 932 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
AS FORECAST, MOST OF THE REGION PICKED UP BENEFICIAL RAINS OF
BETWEEN 1/4 AND 3/4 INCH OF RAIN TODAY. HOWEVERE, THERE WAS A WIDE
SWATH OF EVEN HEAVIER 1-3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT OCCURRED
FROM CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY EAST ALONG THE SR 20 CORRIDOR TO
TALLAHASSEE, AND UP TO NEAR THOMASVILLE, GEORGIA.
AFTER THIS EVENING, NO ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME AROUND FRIDAY
AND NEXT SATURDAY, THOUGH IT SHOULD COME UP WELL SHORT OF AMOUNTS
NEEDED FOR FLOODING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 51 64 46 68 / 30 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 53 65 49 68 / 20 0 0 0
DOTHAN 49 64 45 67 / 20 0 0 0
ALBANY 48 63 43 67 / 20 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 48 62 43 68 / 60 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 53 66 46 73 / 90 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 54 63 52 65 / 60 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ751-752-
770-772.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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