795
FXUS62 KTAE 041710
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1210 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (40 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF FOG IMPACTING
MONDAY MORNING'S COMMUTE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 859 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. ADD IN
SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRATUS DECK TO LINGER FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ENTIRELY HINGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THE STRATUS DECK DISSIPATES. THE NBM IS NEAR OR COOLER THAN
THE NBM25, WHICH IS CERTAINLY INTERESTING AND HIGHLIGHTS THE
POTENTIAL THAT IF WE SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK APART SOONER THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD BE WARMER THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST.
REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION, WITH A SHOT AT A FEW 70S IF WE'RE ABLE TO SEE THE
CLOUD DECK BREAK FULLY APART BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FOGGY PATTERN TAKES
OVER MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THE REFS HAS A MEDIUM (40-60 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE TONIGHT, SO HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST MUCH OF THE FIRST WEEK
OF JANUARY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
MONDAY AND WELL INTO THE 70S THE REST OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S
MONDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN AT BAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWINGS OUR WAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
FOG, SOME DENSE, IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK
THANKS TO AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, SOMEWHAT CALM WINDS, AND A
DECENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
OVERALL, AN H5 RIDGE HANGS OUT OVER THE GULF, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
AWAY FROM US THROUGH MID-WEEK. THAT CHANGES AS AN H5 TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND HEADS EAST. THIS
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE REFINED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH A RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO
LIFR AT TLH, DHN, AND VLD. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT LATE MONDAY MORNING
WITH A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR CIGS THRU THE TAF VALID TIME OF 18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE TODAY, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2
TO 4 FEET. WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID-WEEK AS SEAS BECOME GENERALLY 2 FEET OR
LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
A WETTING RAIN FELL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. HOWEVER, HIGH
PRESSURE NEARBY WILL BRING LOWER DISPERSIONS TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THE NEXT SEVERAL
MORNINGS AS SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY BY
TUESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
BY MID-WEEK.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING
BY LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF FOG ARE FORECAST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH MID-WEEK. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 65 47 68 50 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 67 50 68 56 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 64 46 66 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 64 45 66 48 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 64 45 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 67 46 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 63 52 65 56 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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