100
FXUS62 KTAE 041827
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
127 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (40 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF FOG IMPACTING
MONDAY MORNING'S COMMUTE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED
WITH A RESIDUAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT
WHERE FOG MAY DEVELOP. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM (40 TO 60
PERCENT) CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
AND DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING US MAINLY DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. FOG
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN EACH MORNING THANKS TO AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, SOMEWHAT CALM WINDS, AND A DECENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH A RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO
LIFR AT TLH, DHN, AND VLD. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT LATE MONDAY MORNING
WITH A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR CIGS THRU THE TAF VALID TIME OF 18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW DISPERSIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THE NEXT
SEVERAL MORNINGS AS SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY ON MONDAY AND
SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. AMOUNTS CURRENTLY DO NOT LOOK HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLOODING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 47 69 52 74 / 0 0 0 10
PANAMA CITY 50 68 56 72 / 0 0 10 10
DOTHAN 46 66 52 73 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 45 67 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 45 69 49 74 / 0 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 48 74 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 53 65 57 69 / 0 0 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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