855
FXUS62 KTAE 042351
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
651 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (40 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF FOG IMPACTING
MONDAY MORNING'S COMMUTE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED
WITH A RESIDUAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT
WHERE FOG MAY DEVELOP. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM (40 TO 60
PERCENT) CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
AND DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING US MAINLY DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. FOG
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN EACH MORNING THANKS TO AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, SOMEWHAT CALM WINDS, AND A DECENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
AT 2345Z, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO A
STRATUS DECK, WITH THE EDGE FROM FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA TO PERRY
FL TO JUST SOUTH OF VLD. CIGS IN THE STRATUS ARE IN THE 010-015
RANGE. AS LOW- LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT (ALBEIT WEAK), THAT STRATUS WILL START TO ADVANCE OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST, OVERTAKING VLD, TLH, AND ECP FIRST, THEN DHN AND
ABY LATER TONIGHT. CIGS IN THE STRATUS WILL LOWER. THE HILLTOP
LOCATION OF DHN AIRPORT COULD MAKE IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOW CLOUDS
SKIMMING ACROSS AS FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT DETAIL IS LOW.
STARTING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY, CIGS WILL START TO
SLOW LIFT. PARTIAL SCATTERING IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW DISPERSIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THE NEXT
SEVERAL MORNINGS AS SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY ON MONDAY AND
SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. AMOUNTS CURRENTLY DO NOT LOOK HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLOODING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 47 69 52 74 / 0 0 0 10
PANAMA CITY 50 68 56 72 / 0 0 10 10
DOTHAN 46 66 52 73 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 45 67 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 45 69 49 74 / 0 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 48 74 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 53 65 57 69 / 0 0 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page