351
FXUS62 KTAE 050556
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1256 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (30 TO 50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF FOG IMPACTING THE
MORNING COMMUTE AGAIN TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (30 TO 50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR FORECAST MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. EASTERLY BREEZES TODAY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE WEEK. AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND A STOUT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS.
LATEST REFS GUIDANCES SUGGESTS A MEDIUM (30 TO 50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF
FOG AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. SEEING AS THE PATTERN WON'T SHIFT MUCH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
AN H5 RIDGE OVER THE GULF DEFLECTS MOST OF THE STORMS SYSTEMS AWAY
FROM US THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A LOW (10 TO 20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY. A CLOSER INSPECTION OF
SOUNDINGS, HOWEVER, INDICATES THIS IS MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE AND/OR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS MOISTURE DOESN'T REACH TERRIBLY FAR HIGH INTO
THE ATMOSPHERE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE'S NO CLEAR BOUNDARY TO INSTIGATE
THOSE SHOWERS, SO HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP A "SILENT" 10 PERCENT POP IN
THE FORECAST AND WILL REASSESS AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
A MORE ROBUST H5 TROUGH DIVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND COMBINES WITH THE H5 LOW SPINNING OFF THE BAJA AND MOVES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED H5 RIDGE OVER
THE GULF WILL BE STUBBORN, BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO THE
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. COOLER WEATHER FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 50S
FOR LOWS. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS AND BACK INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
AN IFR TO, AT TIMES, LIFR STRATUS DECK IS PROGRESSING NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR ARE SEEING SOME FOG
DEVELOP. ONCE THE STRATUS DECK MOVES OVERHEAD, FOG SHOULDN'T BE AS
MUCH OF AN ISSUE. CEILINGS START TO LIFT BY MID TO LATE MONDAY
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO TAKE OVER. EASTERLY WINDS
EARLY TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THERE MAY BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH AT KVLD TO INCLUDE IT IN
THEIR TAFS AT THIS TIME. BUT DO ANTICIPATE FOG AND/OR STRATUS TO BE
AN ISSUE JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE NEARBY. EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RUN 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ALONG THE COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
LOW DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY DUE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TRANSPORT WINDS. FOG IS ALSO A CONCERN THIS MORNING AND THE NEXT
SEVERAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS SURFACE WINDS GO FROM EASTERLY THIS
MORNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT TO SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
TUESDAY. WHILE THERE IS A LOW (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
LESS THAN 0.50", BUT WE'LL REFINE THAT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 67 50 73 57 / 0 0 10 10
PANAMA CITY 67 56 72 61 / 0 10 10 10
DOTHAN 65 50 73 59 / 0 10 0 10
ALBANY 66 48 72 56 / 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 68 48 74 56 / 0 0 10 10
CROSS CITY 71 49 74 56 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 64 56 69 59 / 0 10 10 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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