896
FXUS62 KTAE 052053
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
353 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (30 TO 50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF FOG IMPACTING THE
MORNING COMMUTE AGAIN TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (30 TO 50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
FAIRLY PERSISTENT WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING TODAY AND TOMORROW FLATTENS OUT AND BECOMES ZONAL MID-WEEK
AS A SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW SOME VERY WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT IN THE FORM OF PV STREAMERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION,
LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE MORE RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS OUR NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO SWEEP THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WEAKENING FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS
EVOLVES OVER THE COMING DAYS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE REGION WILL SEE
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS. BEHIND THE FRONT, COLD
NORTHERLY AIR LOOKS TO RETURN, UNFORTUNATELY.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC, WE'LL HAVE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, LEADING TO A GRADUAL
WARMING AND MOISTENING THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO UPPER 50S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A SLOW
EROSION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK AND RETURN TO VFR TODAY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS FOG
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 06Z TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD FOG, AND
DENSE FOR TLH AND VLD, IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE CALM TONIGHT AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AT 5-10 KTS BY
THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE NEARBY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY, AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN
2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ALONG THE COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS AS
SURFACE WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY ONSHORE, BRINGING IN MOIST AIR OFF
THE GULF. WINDS INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON AFTER TODAY LEADING TO GOOD
DISPERSIONS AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST. LIGHT AND SPORADIC RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
AROUND A QUARTER INCH TO THREE QUARTS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS BEING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST AL, AND LOWER
TOTALS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE FL BIG BEND.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 50 73 57 76 / 0 10 10 20
PANAMA CITY 56 72 61 73 / 10 10 20 10
DOTHAN 50 73 58 75 / 0 10 10 0
ALBANY 48 72 57 76 / 0 10 20 10
VALDOSTA 48 73 57 77 / 0 10 10 20
CROSS CITY 49 75 56 77 / 0 0 10 10
APALACHICOLA 56 70 60 71 / 10 10 20 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page