265
FXUS62 KTAE 060134
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
834 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 816 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (30 TO 50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF FOG IMPACTING THE
MORNING COMMUTE AGAIN TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (30 TO 50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 816 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING SO ADJUSTED THEM
DOWNWARD ALONG WITH DEW POINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES, WHICH WILL
BE HELPFUL IN ASSESSING THE FOG THREAT. THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS,
AND RH ALREADY APPROACHING 100% IN SOME LOCATIONS. UPDATED THE
WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT A FASTER ONSET OF FOG, DEVELOPING IN FL
BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GA AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY 5 AM ET. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN A BIFURCATED
FASHION FROM THE THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF GA INTO THE FL BIG BEND,
THEN FURTHER WEST IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE,
WHERE IT COULD BE DENSE. THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE SHOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER IDEA OF THE EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE FOG.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
FAIRLY PERSISTENT WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING TODAY AND TOMORROW FLATTENS OUT AND BECOMES ZONAL MID-WEEK
AS A SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW SOME VERY WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT IN THE FORM OF PV STREAMERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION,
LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE MORE RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS OUR NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO SWEEP THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WEAKENING FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS
EVOLVES OVER THE COMING DAYS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE REGION WILL SEE
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS. BEHIND THE FRONT, COLD
NORTHERLY AIR LOOKS TO RETURN, UNFORTUNATELY.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC, WE'LL HAVE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, LEADING TO A GRADUAL
WARMING AND MOISTENING THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE RESTRICTIONS TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT IN
LOW CLOUDS/FOG. SLOW RECOVERY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY TO MVFR CIGS BY
18Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS AND TIMING
THE TRANSITIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE NEARBY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY, AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN
2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ALONG THE COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS AS
SURFACE WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY ONSHORE, BRINGING IN MOIST AIR OFF
THE GULF. WINDS INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON AFTER TODAY LEADING TO GOOD
DISPERSIONS AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST. LIGHT AND SPORADIC RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
AROUND A QUARTER INCH TO THREE QUARTS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS BEING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST AL, AND LOWER
TOTALS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE FL BIG BEND.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 66 50 73 57 / 0 0 10 10
PANAMA CITY 67 57 72 61 / 0 10 10 20
DOTHAN 64 49 73 58 / 0 0 10 10
ALBANY 64 48 72 57 / 0 0 10 20
VALDOSTA 67 47 73 57 / 0 0 10 10
CROSS CITY 71 49 75 56 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 64 57 70 60 / 0 10 10 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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