548
FXUS62 KTAE 061434
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
934 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 933 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN EXPANSION OF IT IS PROBABLE AS WE MONITOR TRENDS
ACROSS THE REGION.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (30 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOLLOWING SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT.
OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW (10 TO 30 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY;
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES HAVE A MEDIUM (30 TO 60 PERCENT).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
PATCHY FOG IS STILL PRESENT THIS MORNING IN OUR AL AND GA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. WHILE THAT WILL LIFT, CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS, MAX TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS MORNING'S FORECAST.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE WORD OF THE WEEK IS FOG.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. THE DENSEST FOG
AS OF 1AM EST IS ACROSS THE I-75 AND US-82 CORRIDOR IN GEORGIA,
WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM EST. AN
EXPANSION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VERY MUCH ON THE TABLE AS WE
MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MORE FOG IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FOG SLOWLY LIFTS
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES EACH MORNING, ALTHOUGH HOW FAST WILL
GREATLY INFLUENCE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
AFTERNOONS. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES FASTER THAN EXPECTED, WE'LL EASILY
RACE INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS; IF IT'S SLOW, WE'LL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 60S.
A BIT OF VORTICITY AT 500MB SWIRLS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS AND COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER. HOWEVER, THOSE
CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
A LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TRUDGES EAST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.
STILL, WE CURRENTLY HAVE A MEDIUM (40 TO 60) PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SE FLORIDA BIG BEND. ENSEMBLE AND
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT,
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF THAT
TREND CONTINUES.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S FOR
HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, WE'LL STRUGGLE TO GET
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
FOG IS ALREADY STARTING TO LIFT AT MOST OF OUR TAF SITES OUTSIDE
OF KABY, WHERE IT'S EXPECTED TO HANG ON A LITTLE WHILE LONGER.
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SREF GUIDANCE IS
PAINTING A RATHER FOGGY PICTURE FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA AGAIN
TONIGHT, WHILE THE HREF IS PAINTING A FOGGY PICTURE MORE FOR KTLH
AND KVLD. SO HAVE ELECTED TO LIFR TO IFR AT MOST TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LOWER VISIBILITY FOR
KTLH AND KVLD WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A TAD HIGHER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. GENTLE TO
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2
FEET OR LESS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG ALONG THE COAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
FOG REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS. ANY
MORNING FOG SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON EACH DAY
THIS WEEK. POOR DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS FORECAST INLAND.
THERE IS A LOW (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY, BRINGING MORE RAIN AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO
THE AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 101 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING MORE RAIN, PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO, TO THE REGION. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 40 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FLINT/APALACHICOLA RIVERS
PICKING UP MORE THAN 0.5" OF RAIN, WITH A LOW (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT)
CHANCE FOR AREAS EAST OF THERE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 58 76 58 / 10 10 10 0
PANAMA CITY 71 61 73 59 / 10 10 10 10
DOTHAN 71 59 75 57 / 0 10 0 0
ALBANY 70 57 76 56 / 10 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 71 57 76 57 / 10 10 20 0
CROSS CITY 73 56 76 56 / 0 10 10 0
APALACHICOLA 70 60 70 59 / 10 10 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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