033
FXUS62 KTAE 061826
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
126 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN EXPANSION OF IT IS PROBABLE AS WE MONITOR TRENDS
ACROSS THE REGION.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (30 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOLLOWING SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT.
OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW (10 TO 30 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY;
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES HAVE A MEDIUM (30 TO 60 PERCENT).
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE WORD OF THE WEEK IS FOG.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. THE DENSEST FOG
AS OF 1AM EST IS ACROSS THE I-75 AND US-82 CORRIDOR IN GEORGIA,
WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM EST. AN
EXPANSION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VERY MUCH ON THE TABLE AS WE
MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MORE FOG IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FOG SLOWLY LIFTS
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES EACH MORNING, ALTHOUGH HOW FAST WILL
GREATLY INFLUENCE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
AFTERNOONS. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES FASTER THAN EXPECTED, WE'LL EASILY
RACE INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS; IF IT'S SLOW, WE'LL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 60S.
A BIT OF VORTICITY AT 500MB SWIRLS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS AND COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER. HOWEVER, THOSE
CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
A LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TRUDGES EAST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.
STILL, WE CURRENTLY HAVE A MEDIUM (40 TO 60) PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SE FLORIDA BIG BEND. ENSEMBLE AND
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT,
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF THAT
TREND CONTINUES.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S FOR
HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, WE'LL STRUGGLE TO GET
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR FOR THE MOST PART BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT TLH, ABY, AND
VLD. FOR TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND INLAND TERMINALS
OF DHN, TLH, ABY, AND VLD, WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY 06Z. IN THE FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE (09-13Z)
PERIODS OF VLIFR CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AT TLH/VLD WHERE FOG
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
LOW CEILINGS EXISTS AT ECP SO HAVE NOT PUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FOR TONIGHT, BUT WE STILL CAN'T RULE IT OUT.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE IN THE MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS NOT RETURNING UNTIL AT LEAST 16Z ACROSS MOST TAF SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. GENTLE TO
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2
FEET OR LESS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG ALONG THE COAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
FOG REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS. ANY
MORNING FOG SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON EACH DAY
THIS WEEK. POOR DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS FORECAST INLAND.
THERE IS A LOW (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY, BRINGING MORE RAIN AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO
THE AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 101 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING MORE RAIN, PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO, TO THE REGION. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 40 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FLINT/APALACHICOLA RIVERS
PICKING UP MORE THAN 0.5" OF RAIN, WITH A LOW (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT)
CHANCE FOR AREAS EAST OF THERE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 59 77 58 74 / 10 10 10 10
PANAMA CITY 62 73 60 73 / 10 10 10 10
DOTHAN 60 76 58 75 / 10 0 10 10
ALBANY 58 76 56 75 / 10 10 10 0
VALDOSTA 58 76 57 76 / 10 10 10 10
CROSS CITY 56 76 56 77 / 0 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 60 71 60 69 / 10 10 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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