038
FXUS62 KTAE 062100
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
- PATCHY TO DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERY MORNING OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (30 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOLLOWING SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT.
OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW (10 TO 30 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY;
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES HAVE A MEDIUM (30 TO 60 PERCENT).
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SINCE YESTERDAY. CURRENT MID-LEVEL
RIDGING FLATTENS OUT AND BECOMES ZONAL MID-WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TO
OUR NORTH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW SOME VERY WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT IN THE FORM OF PV STREAMERS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION, LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME SPARSE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE MORE RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS OUR
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO SWEEP THE REGION ON SATURDAY. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WEAKENING FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST, TAKING MOST OF THE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WITH IT. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES OVER THE
COMING DAYS BUT THE CURRENT TREND DOESN'T SEEM TO SUPPORT STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS. BEHIND THE FRONT, COLD NORTHERLY AIR LOOKS
TO RETURN, UNFORTUNATELY.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC, WE'LL HAVE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, LEADING TO PERSISTENT
WARMING AND MOISTENING THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO UPPER 50S. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY DAYTIME HIGHS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR FOR THE MOST PART BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT TLH, ABY, AND
VLD. FOR TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND INLAND TERMINALS
OF DHN, TLH, ABY, AND VLD, WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY 06Z. IN THE FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE (09-13Z)
PERIODS OF VLIFR CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AT TLH/VLD WHERE FOG
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
LOW CEILINGS EXISTS AT ECP SO HAVE NOT PUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FOR TONIGHT, BUT WE STILL CAN'T RULE IT OUT.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE IN THE MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS NOT RETURNING UNTIL AT LEAST 16Z ACROSS MOST TAF SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY,
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS COULD BE
MET BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG ALONG THE COAST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS AS
SURFACE WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY ONSHORE, BRINGING IN MOIST AIR OFF
THE GULF. WINDS INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON AFTER TODAY LEADING TO GOOD
DISPERSIONS AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST. LIGHT AND SPORADIC RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
AROUND HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST AL, AND LOWER TOTALS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES IN THE FL BIG BEND.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 59 77 58 74 / 10 10 10 10
PANAMA CITY 62 73 60 73 / 10 10 10 10
DOTHAN 60 76 58 75 / 10 0 10 10
ALBANY 58 76 56 75 / 10 10 10 0
VALDOSTA 58 76 57 76 / 10 10 10 10
CROSS CITY 56 76 56 77 / 0 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 60 71 60 69 / 10 10 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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