350
FXUS62 KTAE 070043
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
743 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 736 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERY MORNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (30 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOLLOWING SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT.
OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW (10 TO 30 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY;
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES HAVE A MEDIUM (30 TO 60 PERCENT).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 736 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE FOR TONIGHT WAS TO ADD A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER, NEITHER OF THESE HAVE MUCH LIFT, BUT
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SHOULDN'T
AMOUNT TO MEASURABLE RAIN. OTHERWISE, A FOGGY NIGHT IS STILL
EXPECTED. A PLUME OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAS MOVED INLAND FROM
APALACHEE BAY. HOWEVER, FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT MAY BE
DISRUPTED BY THE CURRENT MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING OVER
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SINCE YESTERDAY. CURRENT MID-LEVEL
RIDGING FLATTENS OUT AND BECOMES ZONAL MID-WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TO
OUR NORTH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW SOME VERY WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT IN THE FORM OF PV STREAMERS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION, LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME SPARSE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE MORE RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS OUR
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO SWEEP THE REGION ON SATURDAY. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WEAKENING FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST, TAKING MOST OF THE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WITH IT. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES OVER THE
COMING DAYS BUT THE CURRENT TREND DOESN'T SEEM TO SUPPORT STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS. BEHIND THE FRONT, COLD NORTHERLY AIR LOOKS
TO RETURN, UNFORTUNATELY.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC, WE'LL HAVE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, LEADING TO PERSISTENT
WARMING AND MOISTENING THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO UPPER 50S. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY DAYTIME HIGHS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IS NEAR TLH AND APPROACHING
VLD. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THIS STRATUS
DECK. CIGS HAVE BEEN LIFR TO MVFR, SO HAVE STARTED THE TAF CYCLE
AT IFR AT TLH, AND STARTING THAT AT VLD IN A COUPLE HOURS. LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT AT THE OTHER TERMINALS
THROUGH THE NIGHT, THOUGH THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA MAY DISRUPT THIS FORMATION.
NEVERTHELESS, IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH VFR AFTER 18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 736 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
APALACHEE BAY AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY, AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS COULD BE MET BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RUN 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG ALONG THE COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS AS
SURFACE WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY ONSHORE, BRINGING IN MOIST AIR OFF
THE GULF. WINDS INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON AFTER TODAY LEADING TO GOOD
DISPERSIONS AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST. LIGHT AND SPORADIC RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
AROUND HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST AL, AND LOWER TOTALS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES IN THE FL BIG BEND.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 59 77 58 / 10 10 10 10
PANAMA CITY 72 62 73 60 / 0 10 10 10
DOTHAN 74 60 76 58 / 0 10 10 10
ALBANY 72 58 76 56 / 10 10 10 10
VALDOSTA 73 58 76 57 / 10 10 10 10
CROSS CITY 75 56 76 56 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 70 60 71 60 / 10 10 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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