554
FXUS62 KTAE 080021
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
721 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 717 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS. SOME LOCATIONS AND MARINE ZONES COULD SEE DENSE FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE. USE CAUTION
WHEN DRIVING OR BOATING.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MEDIUM (30 TO 70 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS ALABAMA AND THE
PANHANDLE.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW (10 TO 30 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY;
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES HAVE A MEDIUM (30 TO 60 PERCENT)
CHANCE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 717 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING WAS TO EXPAND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE REMAINING GEORGIA COUNTIES NEAR THE
I-75 CORRIDOR.SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SPOTS
THIS EVENING, NAMELY NEAR TYNDALL AFB AND THOMASVILLE. EXPECT THIS
TO EXPAND AND THICKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH DENSE FOG
LIKELY IN MOST SPOTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
HIGH CHANCES FOR FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WARM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT
48 TO 72 HOURS AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW, COOLER SHELF WATERS, AND
MOSTLY CLEAR UPPER LEVEL SKY CONDITIONS SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH CONDITIONS
BECOMING BREEZIER AND BREEZIER THROUGH THE WEEK. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL 20 TO 25 MPH
GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT NEARS.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE
REGION, WITH A GRADIENT IN CHANCES RANGING AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO AROUND 30 TO 50
PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT HASN'T REALLY CHANGED WITH TODAY'S UPDATE AND MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DON'T LOOK
PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
BE QUICKLY LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM
AROUND 0.50 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PANHANDLE
COUNTIES TO AROUND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. SEVERE PROSPECTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
VERY LOW GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROSPECTS, AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING OUT, BUT ELEVATED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS COULD BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS OUR
ALABAMA COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING BEFORE
INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE
IN. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
MUCH OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WILL OCCUR
AT MIDNIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING, OR STRUGGLING TO WARM,
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR NEXT MONDAY ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR
A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
AREA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE ALREADY SHOW SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO GO DOWN TO
LIFR/VLIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AIRPORT
MINIMUMS LIKELY AT ALL SITES. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS NOT RETURNING TO VFR UNTIL 16-17Z
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE S TO SSW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
MOSTLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MAIN MARINE HAZARDS
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE PERIODS OF DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY
ALONG NEARSHORE WATERS. AHEAD OF A WEEKEND COLD FRONT, SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS TO AREA WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY THE TIME THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS TO
QUICKLY DEVELOP AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS
WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO SATURDAY. ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. POOR DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST ALONG
THE ENTIRE GULF COAST TODAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE
APALACHEE BAY ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IMPROVE DISPERSIONS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE COAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POOR DISPERSIONS
WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MORE RAIN AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH (LESS
THAN 0.5 INCHES) BUT LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
LITTLE TO NO FLOODING IS FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME MORE RAIN TO THE AREA, BUT THE MOST
LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.50".
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 60 75 57 / 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 73 62 74 60 / 10 10 10 10
DOTHAN 76 59 76 57 / 0 0 10 10
ALBANY 76 59 75 56 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 77 59 77 56 / 10 0 10 0
CROSS CITY 76 59 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 71 62 69 60 / 10 10 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 10 AM EST /9
AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-
118-127-128-134-326-426.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
GMZ730-735-751-752-755-765-775.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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