841
FXUS62 KTAE 080606
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
106 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. USE CAUTION
WHEN DRIVING OR BOATING. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (50 TO 80 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR
FLORIDA COUNTIES CURRENTLY HAVE A MEDIUM (40 TO 60 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY;
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES HAVE A MEDIUM TO HIGH (50 TO 80
PERCENT) CHANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
FOG. THAT'S THE NAME OF THE GAME AGAIN TODAY, FRIDAY, AND THE FIRST
PART OF SATURDAY. HOW QUICKLY THE FOG IS ABLE TO DISSIPATE EACH DAY
WILL DICTATE HOW WARM EACH AFTERNOON GETS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT
A FEW SPOTS WILL HIT 80 DEGREES, OR NEAR RECORD TERRITORY.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT. WHILE AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE, THE LIKELIHOOD IS LOW.
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND LIFT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA. HOWEVER, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS IS ENOUGH THAT
WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ROLLS THROUGH.
THE WINDS OF WINTER FOLLOW THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES TAKE A TUMBLE
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING, AT LEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, BEFORE
COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF MORNINGS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WIND AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WILL BRING WIND CHILL
VALUES, OR THE FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURE, INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA AND MAY FLIRT WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IN FLORIDA,
OR WIND CHILLS BELOW 25 DEGREES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL HANG OUT IN THE
50S MONDAY AFTERNOON, OR A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
FOG IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIFR TO
VLIFR VISIBILITY IS FORECAST AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FOG SLOWLY LIFTS TO A STRATUS DECK BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. CLOUD SHOULD BREAK APART THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR TO VLIFR FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS IS FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE AT
ALL THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
DENSE FOG IS A CONCERN FOR BOATERS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE, FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE FOG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS INCREASE TO
NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. ADVISORY
LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A GUST TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE WEST OF APALACHICOLA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THE
REST OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. POOR DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST AGAIN TODAY ALONG WITH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE THEN FORECAST FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF AROUND APALACHEE BAY, WHERE POOR
DISPERSIONS WILL LINGER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ALONG WITH IT. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS MINRH VALUES TANK TO BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT
ACROSS THE REGION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
LITTLE TO NO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA, BUT
THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.50".
ALTHOUGH THOSE WEST OF THE FLINT/APALACHICOLA RIVERS HAVE A LOW (10
TO 30 PERCENT) CHANCE AT RECEIVING MORE THAN 1.0" OF RAIN FROM
SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 57 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 74 59 75 64 / 0 10 10 20
DOTHAN 75 57 78 64 / 0 0 0 20
ALBANY 75 56 80 60 / 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 76 57 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 78 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 68 60 70 62 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-735-751-752-755-765-775.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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