107
FXUS62 KTAE 140544
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1244 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST
THIS WORK WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE (80-100 PERCENT) OF AN INLAND
HARD FREEZE (25F OR LOWER). THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 40
PERCENT) OF TEMPERATURES TUMBLING BELOW 20 DEGREES ACROSS
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA FRIDAY MORNING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE (60-80 PERCENT) OF GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WEST
OF APALACHICOLA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 846 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
EVENING SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LOW TRUDGING EASTWARD OVER EAST TX SOUTH OF A DIGGING BROAD,
NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGH. THE FORMER IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIFT
SUPPORTIVE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER LA INTO MS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER/RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TIMEZONE COUNTIES.
THE LATEST SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A VERY DRY
AIRMASS, ESPECIALLY AT 850-500 MB, BENEATH A LAYER OF RELATIVELY
GREATER MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
NON-IMPACTFUL. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF PRECIP ARRIVAL WILL OVERLAP
WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES, SUFFICIENTLY WARM SURFACE CONDITIONS
ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OF THE LIQUID
VARIETY. ANOTHER WORDS - A WINTRY MIX APPEARS UNLIKELY.
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST TONIGHT. NUDGED UP
TEMPERATURES AT VALDOSTA & CROSS CITY TO ACCOUNT FOR THICKER LOWER
CLOUDS PUSHING NORTHWARD OFF THE FL PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
ALONG WITH THE FRONT, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 0.10", SO IT WON'T ALLEVIATE THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. FILTERED SUNSHINE AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE
SHORT TERM PORTION SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP FOLLOWING THE FRONT, USHERING IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, OPENING THE DOOR FOR A VERY COLD FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A HIGH (80-100%) CHANCE OF MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EXPERIENCING A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW 25 DEGREES. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 40%) CHANCE OF
TEMPERATURES TUMBLING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA FRIDAY MORNING.
SUBTLY WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SCOOTS EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM (40 TO
60%) CHANCE OF ANOTHER HARD FREEZE, OR TEMPERATURES BELOW 25
DEGREES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
KTLH: SMOKE FROM A NEARBY PRESCRIBED BURN HAS LEAD TO LIFR
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN AT TLH THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO
PERSIST UNTIL 10-12Z BEFORE LIFTING.
TAFS REFLECT -SHRA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IMPACTING TERMINALS
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. OUTSIDE OF BRIEF MVFR VSBY WITH SHRA,
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AFTER 00Z WITH THE COLD
FROPA, AS WEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS VEER TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KTS, GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS AT DHN. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
WHEN LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER WITH A RETURN TO VFR. FIRST
ITERATION IS 08-10Z AT DHN, ABY, AND ECP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE WILL
FOLLOW THAT FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF
APALACHICOLA. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS A HIGH CENTER PASSES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
EVENING. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. INCREASING
WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ALONG
WITH THE FRONT, WITH THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST TO BE
LESS THAN 0.10". STRONG, GUSTY WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT THURSDAY,
SUPPORTING ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS. MINRH WILL
START TO NEAR CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN GEORGIA DISTRICTS
THURSDAY WITH THEM BECOMING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS GEORGIA
INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.10". THERE
IS A LOW, LESS THAN 20 PERCENT, CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 0.25"
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE EMERALD AND FORGOTTEN COASTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 62 39 59 41 / 0 10 40 10
PANAMA CITY 61 44 62 40 / 0 30 30 30
DOTHAN 59 39 57 34 / 0 40 20 10
ALBANY 61 37 57 37 / 0 20 30 10
VALDOSTA 62 38 58 39 / 0 10 40 10
CROSS CITY 65 45 63 42 / 0 0 40 40
APALACHICOLA 60 44 60 42 / 0 20 50 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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