426
FXUS62 KTAE 141752
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1252 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY. FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST THIS
WORK WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE (80-100%) OF AN INLAND HARD FREEZE
(25F OR LOWER). THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-60%) OF
TEMPERATURES TUMBLING BELOW 20 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA FRIDAY MORNING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (60-80%)
OF GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEST
OF APALACHICOLA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, A FEW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TODAY, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10", SO IT WON'T
ALLEVIATE THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FILTERED SUNSHINE AND
THE ARRIVAL OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL
USHER IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
GET MUCH BEYOND 45-50 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. THE
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID 50S.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, OPENING THE DOOR FOR A VERY COLD FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (80-100%) OF MANY LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST EXPERIENCING A HARD FREEZE WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 25 DEGREES. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-
60%) OF TEMPERATURES TUMBLING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA FRIDAY MORNING.
SUBTLY WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 50S FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO MID
60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL RACE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) OF ANOTHER HARD
FREEZE, OR TEMPERATURES OF 25 DEGREES OR LOWER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT IS UPSTREAM AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BEGINNING THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF IMPACTING TERMINALS FROM
DHN/ABY/VLD IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. POST FRONTAL GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL HELP
SCATTER OUT THE LOWER CIGS BEFORE DAWN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DECREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A HIGH
CENTER PASSES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY EVENING. YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST WITH
THE FRONT WITH THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST TO BE LESS
THAN 0.10". STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON THURSDAY,
SUPPORTING ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS. MINRH WILL FALL
TO NEAR CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN GEORGIA DISTRICTS
THURSDAY AND BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS GEORGIA INTO THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ANY RAIN
THAT FALLS IN THE NEXT WEEK WILL NOT BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 59 38 48 23 / 50 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 63 37 50 30 / 50 20 0 0
DOTHAN 57 31 45 23 / 50 20 0 0
ALBANY 56 32 45 22 / 60 20 0 0
VALDOSTA 58 37 48 22 / 50 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 64 42 54 21 / 50 40 0 0
APALACHICOLA 61 39 49 31 / 60 40 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-118-127-128-134-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ112-114.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7
PM EST /6 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR GMZ730-751-752-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ735.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
GMZ770-772.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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