594
FXUS62 KTAE 142345
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
645 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW 25 DEGREES (WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE) OR
BELOW 20 DEGREES (SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA). ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES, AT LEAST, THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
- FREEZE WATCH FOR A HARD FREEZE (25F OR LOWER) REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (50-70%) OF
TEMPERATURES TUMBLING BELOW 20 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA NORTH OF US-84 FRIDAY
MORNING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GALE WARNINGS
CONTINUE FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS BETWEEN APALACHICOLA AND
THE WALTON-OKALOOSA LINE.
- THERE IS A LOW (LESS THAN 20%) CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA, SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA BIG BEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MORE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS IN THE OFFERING TONIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW 25 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS PUSH COLD TEMPERATURES OVER US THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG 1030MB HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE
COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL LEAD TO IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE FREEZE WATCH FOR A HARD FREEZE CONTINUES
FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING
FOR A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT.
A QUICK WARMING TREND COMMENCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW
(AROUND 20 TO 30%) AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IT'LL BE AN INTERESTING
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WE'LL CHAT ABOUT IT IN GREATER DETAIL BELOW.
ANOTHER COLD SPELL ARRIVES BEHIND SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HARD FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY MID-WEEK.
OKAY, SO BACK TO SUNDAY MORNING. IT'S VERY MUCH A "THREAD THE
NEEDLE" KIND OF EVENT. IN OTHER WORDS, WINTRY MISCHIEF IS A LONG
SHOT, BUT IN THE WORDS OF LLOYD CHRISTMAS: SO YOU'RE TELLING ME
THERE'S A CHANCE.
YES. YES, THERE IS. HOWEVER, IT'S A LOW (LESS THAN 20%) CHANCE AT
THIS TIME. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS WORKING BOTH FOR AND AGAINST
WINTRY WEATHER SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL CHAT ABOUT WHAT WE'LL BE
WATCHING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OKAY, SO WHAT DOES THIS EVENT HAVE GOING FOR IT?
THERE IS A BROAD H5 TROUGH DIVING OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF IT, WHICH EVENTUALLY GETS FLUNG EASTWARD AS IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PROVIDES AMPLE
LIFT AHEAD OF IT, RIGHT OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, WE'LL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A STOUT 100+ KNOT JET AT 200MB OVER THE SOUTHEAST, FURTHER
ENHANCING UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. A STRONG COLD FRONT RUSHES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, PROVIDING A FOCAL POINT FOR
LIFT AT THE SURFACE. IN OTHER WORDS, THERE'S LOTS OF LIFT AROUND.
WE'LL ALSO HAVE A STRONG 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH OOZING OUT OF CANADA
AND INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHAT'S
BRINGING THE COLD WEATHER, WHETHER IT BRINGS WINTRY WEATHER OR NOT.
WHAT IS WORKING AGAINST IT?
COLD CHASING MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION TYPICALLY OUTRUNS THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ON THE WESTERN (OR BACK) SIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IN THIS FORECASTER'S EXPERIENCE, THAT USUALLY DOESN'T
WORK OUT SO WELL OR TYPICALLY HAPPENS EXACTLY AS MODELED BY GLOBAL
MODELS. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW HI-RES GUIDANCE STARTS HANDLING
THINGS, BUT THOSE ONLY GO OUT 48 TO 84 HOURS. WE'LL START TO GET IN
THE RANGE OF SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
ANOTHER THING WORKING AGAINST IT ARE DEW POINTS FORECAST TO BE WELL
INTO THE 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ADD IN THE FACT FORECAST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AND IT'LL BE TOUGH TO WET BULB, OR
COOL, CLOSE TO FREEZING. THAT SAID, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA)
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BUT THAT GOES BACK TO
WHETHER THE COLD CAN APPROPRIATELY COOL THE NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN
OF AIR BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. THAT'S A BIG ASK IN MANY PARTS OF
THE COUNTRY, MUCH LESS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
LET'S BREAK DOWN A FEW POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:
SCENARIO #1:
THE PRECIPITATION OUTRUNS THE COLD AND WE'RE STUCK WITH AN ALL RAIN
EVENT. THE COLD IS DELAYED JUST LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
SCENARIO #2:
THE COLD ARRIVES, AS ADVERTISED, AND ALLOWS FOR A SUDDEN CHANGE OVER
TO WINTRY WEATHER (READ SNOW). IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT,
THERE'D BE A 1 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW FOR SNOW BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING TO
THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING. EXACT TIMING WOULD BE TRICKY LEADING UP TO
THE EVENT, MUCH LESS 3.5-4 DAYS OUT.
SCENARIO #3:
THE TROUGH IS A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN FORECAST AND WE GET A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THAT MEANS LITTLE TO NO RAIN; NO WINTRY WEATHER.
NADA. JUST COLD.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY. BE SURE TO REMAIN UPDATED WITH THE
LATEST WEATHER FORECAST AND GET YOUR WEATHER INFORMATION FROM
TRUSTED SOURCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION HIGHLIGHTS THRU TMRW ARE A FEW-HR DURATION OF
MVFR CIGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND A SHARP
WIND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE MORNING. EXPECT
BREEZY WINDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25-KT
RANGE AMIDST CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE AFTN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TONIGHT,
LEADING TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEST
OF APALACHICOLA. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS A HIGH CENTER PASSES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
EVENING. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTER A COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG,
GUSTY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING HIGHER DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE REGION. MINRH
WILL FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL VALUES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A BIT OF RAIN TO THE AREA. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.10", WITH A LOW
(20%) CHANCE OF PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA PICKING UP MORE THAN 0.25" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 38 48 23 57 / 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 37 50 30 62 / 20 0 0 0
DOTHAN 31 45 23 59 / 20 0 0 0
ALBANY 32 45 22 55 / 20 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 37 48 22 55 / 10 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 42 54 21 58 / 40 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 39 49 31 60 / 40 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
FLZ007>011.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-118-127-128-134-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ112-114.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
GAZ120>124-126-142.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ735.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ770-772.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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