907
FXUS62 KTAE 150727
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
227 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 221 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW 25 DEGREES (WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE) OR BELOW 20 DEGREES (SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA). AN ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
- A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE (25F OR LOWER) IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE PANHANDLE COAST.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
BETWEEN APALACHICOLA AND THE WALTON-OKALOOSA LINE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50%) OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, AND PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE TODAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S TODAY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. THIS
WILL SET UP A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR TONIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL LEAD TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE,
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PLUNGING TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A FEW NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS HAVE A MEDIUM
CHANCE TO DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THE FREEZE WATCH FOR A HARD
FREEZE TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, A QUICK WARMING TREND COMMENCES AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
LIMITED, THE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG, AND THE LATEST THINKING ON
SNOW CHANCES FOR SUNDAY IS BELOW.
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION EXPERTLY LAID OUT THE THREE POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS. ANY OF THE THREE SCENARIOS BELOW IS STILL PLAUSIBLE.
SCENARIO #1:
THE PRECIPITATION OUTRUNS THE COLD AND WE'RE STUCK WITH AN ALL
RAIN EVENT. THE COLD IS DELAYED JUST LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
SCENARIO #2:
THE COLD ARRIVES, AS ADVERTISED, AND ALLOWS FOR A SUDDEN CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT, THEN THERE WOULD
BE A 1 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW FOR SNOW BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING TO THE
EAST LATER ON SUNDAY MORNING.
SCENARIO #3:
THE TROUGH IS A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN FORECAST AND WE GET A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THAT MEANS LITTLE TO NO RAIN AND NO SNOW WITH
JUST COLD TEMPERATURES.
BASED ON THE 00Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE TRENDS, SCENARIO #3 IS LOOKING
LESS LIKELY. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER AND FARTHER
WEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, SO WE WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE A SIMPLE,
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THAT WOULD BE TOO EASY. THAT LEAVES US WITH
EITHER SCENARIO #1 OR SCENARIO #2 TO DEAL WITH.
THE 01Z NBM, WHICH IS WEIGHTED HEAVILY WITH THE 12Z AND 18Z
GUIDANCE FROM WEDNESDAY, HAS THE PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 1
INCH OF SNOW AT GENERALLY 20% ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES. PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2
INCHES OF SNOW ARE ABOUT 10% ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GENEVA
COUNTY TO ALBANY.
THIS IS A VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN LAST YEAR'S WINTER STORM
FOR A FEW REASONS.
1) WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR.
2) SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THIS EVENT IF WE GET
ANY SNOW AT ALL.
3) TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LESS
THAN LAST YEAR'S EVENT.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THIS IS A COLD CHASING
MOISTURE SCENARIO, AND USUALLY WHEN COLD AIR IS NOT ALREADY IN
PLACE DOWN HERE, IT'S VERY HARD TO GET SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER, ALTHOUGH NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY. BE SURE TO REMAIN UPDATED
WITH THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST AND GET YOUR WEATHER INFORMATION
FROM TRUSTED SOURCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
KTLH: SMOKE SHOULD DISPERSE BY 09Z AS THE COLD FROPA OCCURS.
AS OF 05Z, BAND -RA ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA IS MOVING
THROUGH ABY/ECP. BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AS THIS BAND MOVES
EASTWARD. VFR HAS RETURNED TO DHN AND EXPECT IT TO RETURN TO
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS (WEST TO EAST) FROM 08-11Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z, WHEN THEY BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A HIGH CENTER PASSES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY EVENING. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY TRANSPORT WINDS. MINRH WILL FALL TO NEAR
CRITICAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 221 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TOTALS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 0.25 INCHES OR LESS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50%) THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD TREND STRONGER AND BRING PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER 0.50" OF
PRECIPITATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN
THEY OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 48 26 56 42 / 0 0 0 10
PANAMA CITY 51 32 62 53 / 0 0 0 30
DOTHAN 46 25 59 44 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 46 21 56 40 / 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 48 23 55 36 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 54 22 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 49 32 60 52 / 0 0 0 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ007>011.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-118-127-
128-134-326-426.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-118-
127-128-134-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ112-114.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
GAZ120>124-126-142.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ735.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ770-772.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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