854
FXUS62 KTAE 152336
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
636 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
- FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE (TEMPERATURES BELOW 25 DEGREES)
REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. REMEMBER TO TAKE EFFORTS TO PROTECT THOSE FOUR
PS: PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES, PLANTS.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20 TO 40%) OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TUMBLE INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER A CRYSTAL CLEAR
SKY. THERE'S A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR TEMPERATURES
BELOW 25 DEGREES FOR EVERYONE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WHERE
YOU'LL BE IN THE UPPER 20S, CLOSER TO 30. THIS IS THANKS TO A
SURFACE HIGH RIGHT OVER US, ALLOWING WINDS TO GO CALM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOSEYS EAST FRIDAY, ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND A BIT OF SURFACE MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
THE INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A TAD
TRICKY AND GREATLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. AS A
RESULT, HAVE BLENDED IN SOME NBM25 WITH THE NBM TO NUDGE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO. A COLD FRONT CRAWLS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THINGS THEN TURN INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
SCENARIOS TALKED ABOUT THE PAST COUPLE OF DISCUSSIONS HAVE BEEN
TRIMMED BY ONE; THE DRY SCENARIO IS OFF THE TABLE.
THAT LEAVES US WITH THE FOLLOWING SCENARIOS:
SCENARIO #1:
THE PRECIPITATION OUTRUNS THE COLD AND WE'RE DEALING WITH AN ALL
RAIN EVENT. THE COLD IS DELAYED JUST LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. THIS SCENARIO HAS AN 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
OF HAPPENING.
SCENARIO #2:
THE COLD ARRIVES, AS ADVERTISED, AND ALLOWS FOR A SUDDEN CHANGE OVER
TO WINTRY WEATHER (READ SNOW) ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION.
IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT, THERE'D BE A BRIEF 1 TO 2 HOUR
WINDOW FOR SNOW BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING.
EXACT TIMING WOULD BE TRICKY LEADING UP TO THE EVENT, MUCH LESS 2.5-
3 DAYS OUT. THIS SCENARIO HAS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
HAPPENING, MOSTLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
DEFUNIAK SPRINGS, FL TO FITZGERALD, GA.
DIVING A BIT DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST SHOWS THE H5 SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE TROUGH BEING A BIT STRONGER AND SHARPER AS IT SLIDES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, THERE ARE
TWO GENERAL MODEL CAMPS, ONE CAMP HAS THE H5 SHORTWAVE A BIT MORE
NEUTRALLY TILTED AS IT ROLLS OVERHEAD. THIS DELAYS THE BLOSSOMING OF
PRECIPITATION JUST A BIT AND ALLOWS IT TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD. WHY IS
THIS IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER? IT MEANS WE DON'T HAVE AS MUCH TIME TO
DYNAMICALLY COOL TO GET MUCH, IF ANY, WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
MEANWHILE, THE OTHER CAMP HAS THE SHORTWAVE NEUTRALLY TILTED A BIT
EARLIER, SAY OVER LOUISIANA, AND TRIES TO HAVE IT GO NEGATIVELY
TILTED. THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITATION TO BLOSSOM A FEW HOURS EARLIER AND
A BIT WEST, GIVING THINGS TIME TO DYNAMICALLY COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE, HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE ON MUCH OF THE
REGION REMAINING ALL RAIN AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH. HOWEVER,
THERE'S A LOW, LESS THAN 20 PERCENT, CHANCE OF A QUICK CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DEFUNIAK
SPRINGS, FL TO FITZGERALD, GA. THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH
ENOUGH TO KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST. GENERAL TIMING FOR
ANY QUICK CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE 4AM EST/3AM CST TO
ABOUT 11AM EST/10AM CST. AGAIN, THIS IS A VERY GENERAL TIMING AND IT
CAN AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
ANOTHER THING TO MONITOR IS HOW MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) ALOFT
AT H85 AND/OR H7 PLAYS A ROLE IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPERIENCE TELLS THIS FORECASTER THAT BOTH THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WOULD BE MORE NORTH AND WEST THAN MODELED BY GLOBAL MODELS AND
A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE, EVEN
BY HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS IS SOMETHING BOTH THE EXPERIMENTAL RRFS
AND 12KM NAM STARTED TO SHOW ON THEIR 12Z RUNS. BOTH OF THOSE
KEPT ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
SO THAT'S SOMETHING FOR US TO WATCH BECAUSE THE LATEST EURO
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE MORE SOUTH WITH ITS PRECIPITATION.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY. BE SURE TO REMAIN UPDATED WITH THE
LATEST WEATHER FORECAST AND GET YOUR WEATHER INFORMATION FROM
TRUSTED SOURCES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEEDING ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND COMMENCES
NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MAKE FOR
CONTINUED VFR THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT NW WINDS GO CALM TONIGHT,
THEN INCREASE 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SW TMRW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS DEVELOP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS TRANSPORT INCREASE AND TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. MINRH VALUES WILL APPROACH NEAR CRITICAL VALUES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TRANSPORT WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
NO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM THE
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS NOW BETWEEN 0.25" AND 0.50". THERE IS A
LOW (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA RECEIVING MORE THAN 1.0"
OF LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 26 57 42 65 / 0 0 10 40
PANAMA CITY 31 62 53 65 / 0 0 30 40
DOTHAN 25 59 45 59 / 0 0 20 30
ALBANY 22 56 41 61 / 0 0 10 30
VALDOSTA 23 55 37 65 / 0 0 0 30
CROSS CITY 21 57 34 69 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 31 60 53 64 / 0 0 30 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-118-127-
128-134-326-426.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-118-
127-128-134-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY FOR
FLZ112-114.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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