675
FXUS62 KTAE 160605
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10 TO 30%) OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY
MORNING OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA AND THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
A NARROW SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL ALREADY BE IN THE
ATLANTIC EAST OF FLORIDA. WE WILL THEREFORE GET A QUICK TURN TO
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW NO LATER THAN MIDDAY. TO OUR SOUTH,
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR HAS FULLY EN-GULFED THE GULF, SO THE AIR
MASS MODIFICATION WILL TAKE SOME TIME. NONETHELESS, ENOUGH
MOISTURE RETURN WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME PANCAKE-
FLAT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE WILL TREND UP
ABOUT 4-10 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY'S COLD TEMPERATURES.
FOR TONIGHT, THE ADDITION OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS, DEWPOINTS MOISTENING
THROUGH THE 40S, AND INCREASING WIND WILL TEAM UP TO HOLD LOW
TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 40S, EXCEPT FOR UPPER 30S FURTHER EAST
NEAR I-75 AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
LATE TONIGHT, PWAT VALUES WILL HAVE FINALLY RECOVERED INTO THE 0.8-
1.0 INCH RANGE. WITH CONFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE
WATERS TO PROVIDE SOME FOCUS, LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WILL START TO
BLOSSOM IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY, INITIALLY OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE POINT OF INTEREST IN RECENT FORECASTS HAS BEEN POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY PRECIP FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES FROM THE FORECAST THAT WAS
PRODUCED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
WALKING BACK THE EXTENT OF WINTRY PRECIP, MORE IN LINE WITH THE
LESS IMPACTFUL AND MORE BENIGN SCENARIO #1 THAT HAS BEEN LAID OUT
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. LIKE THE LAST FORECAST, THE NEW FORECAST
THIS MORNING KEEPS MOST OF RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF A DEFUNIAK
SPRINGS TO TIFTON LINE. THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE OR ACCUMULATING
SNOW HAS DROPPED MORE SOLIDLY INTO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.
THE METEOROLOGICAL SETUP WILL BE A STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM SATURDAY PM INTO
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT RAIN.
ON SUNDAY MORNING, CONSENSUS STILL POINTS TO A NARROW ZONE ON THE
BACK END OF THE PRECIP WHERE INCOMING COLD AIR OVERLAPS ENOUGH
WITH THE EXITING LIGHT PRECIP FOR A NARROW SLIVER WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. DURATION OF THIS MIX WILL BE SHORT (1-3 HOURS) AT ANY GIVEN
LOCALE.
MOST PLACES WILL HAVE NO IMPACT FOR A FEW REASONS. GROUND
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT WARM AFTER TARGET AREAS ON
SATURDAY GET HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 DEGREES. IN ADDITION, AIR
TEMPERATURES WITHIN ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL RANGE FROM 32-36 DEGREES.
PRECIP IS UNLIKELY TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE MELTING THAT
WILL TAKE PLACE AS PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND. SO THIS WILL MAINLY BE
A NOVELTY EVENT, FOR THOSE WHO GET TO SEE SOME FLAKES OF SNOW
FALLING FROM THE SKY. IF AN ISOLATED SPOT OVER ALABAMA OR GEORGIA
MANAGES TO GET A LIGHT DUSTING THAT LINGERS IN SHADED GRASSY AREAS,
THEN THE DUSTING WOULD STICK AROUND UNTIL MONDAY, GIVEN THE HARD
FREEZE THAT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY MORNING.
BEYOND SUNDAY, THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT GRADUALLY BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CONTINUAL REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL FINALLY EASE STARTING WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO GEORGIA AND OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A
MILDER AND MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT. AFTER MANY COLDER-THAN-NORMAL
DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. PATCHY SMOKE COULD
BRING BRIEF IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES TO TLH THROUGH SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS A NARROW
HIGH CENTER PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS. ONCE THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, MODERATE TO PERHAPS FRESH SOUTHERLY BREEZES
WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY EDGE SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE WATERS LATE SATURDAY, THEN
ACCELERATE ACROSS THE REST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG
NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY, THEN CLOCK AROUND NORTHEASTERLY
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY NORTH OF THE WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GET UNDERWAY TODAY, BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH FOR
HIGH DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A MOISTER AIR MASS WILL ALSO START TO SPREAD IN
ON SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND SUWANNEE VALLEY WILL
HANG ON TO DRY AIR FOR ONE MORE DAY. THEN ON SATURDAY, POCKETS OF
LOW DISPERSION ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER AND A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS. A POLAR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE DISTRICTS FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MIXING WITH SNOW ON SUNDAY MORNING,
MAINLY NORTH OF A DEFUNIAK SPRINGS TO TIFTON LINE. MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS BUT DECREASING WIND
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL NOT BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT, NOR
WILL THEY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE DROUGHT RELIEF.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 57 43 65 38 / 0 10 50 70
PANAMA CITY 63 53 65 37 / 0 30 50 70
DOTHAN 59 45 59 34 / 0 30 40 50
ALBANY 56 41 63 35 / 0 10 40 60
VALDOSTA 56 36 66 38 / 0 0 30 70
CROSS CITY 57 35 69 41 / 0 0 10 50
APALACHICOLA 61 53 65 39 / 0 20 60 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-118-127-128-134-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR FLZ112-114.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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