012
FXUS62 KTAE 170154
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
854 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 849 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20 TO 40%) OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
ON SUNDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 849 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TWEAKING OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES, SKY COVER,
AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES. THE LATTER WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
VALDOSTA & CROSS CITY WHERE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THANKS TO BE ON THE INSIDE LEFT EDGE
OF 1025-MB SURFACE HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
READINGS AS OF ABOUT 0130Z WERE MID TO UPPER 30S! MARINE POPS WERE
ALSO TONED DOWN USING LOCAL CAMS WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE A HIGH
BIAS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS CLOSER TO I-75 TO UPPER 20S TO 30S INTO THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SCOOT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SATURDAY AND A COLD STRONG MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. CLOUDS THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE
CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, THIS WILL HOLD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR, WHICH WILL BE THE LAST TO MOISTEN UP WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 30S; LOWS IN THIS REGION WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S.
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
PANHANDLE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL ENCROACH INLAND THE PANHANDLE
COAST LINE BEFORE DAWN. INTO SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT REACHES INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THEN SLOWS DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND AWAITS COLDER AIR IN THE FORM OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT (OR STRONGER COLD AIR PUSH) WHICH ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF COUNTIES. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL GENERALLY REACH THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS IN THE GULF WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT
AND AID IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH RAIN INCREASING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, COLD AIR ARRIVES
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ATLEAST A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER (1-3 HOUR) TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN PORTIONS OF THE
TRI- STATE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE AS THE AREA OF RAIN MOVES EAST.
THE RAIN/SNOW MIX LINE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT; ESSENTIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH FROM A DEFUNIAK SPRINGS TO MARIANNA NORTHEAST TO
FITZGERALD LINE. CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS LOW; IF
ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR IT WOULD AMOUNT TO 0.5 INCHES OR LESS AND
FAVOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA NORTHEAST TO ALBANY
(DOUGHERTY/LEE/NORTHERN WORTH).
IMPACTS IN THE WINTRY PRECIP AREA WILL BE MINIMAL, IF AT ALL.
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG WITH GROUND AND ROADWAY TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES DURING
THE EVENT WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING (33-36F) WITH AN
ISOLATED LOCATION PERHAPS REACHING 32F FOR AN HOUR OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS I-75. IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR, THAT WOULD BE RELEGATED TO GRASSY AREAS, CAR
AND ROOFTOPS; AND EVEN THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT AND
SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTER THIS EVENT, LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S. IF THESE TEMPERATURES HOLD, EXPECT ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL REACH THE 50S WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR TUESDAY,
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH SURFACE WINDS CLOCKING
FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST; HIGHS REACH THE 60S BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDS PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF BOUTS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM
PATCHY FOG/MIST INVOF ECP/DHN LATE TONIGHT AND PRE-FRONTAL BANDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS EARLY TMRW MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NW
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP FOR -SHRA AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT VLD
STARTING AT 18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS COMMENCED THROUGHOUT THE GULF WATERS TODAY, ON
THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BEGINNING LATER SATURDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
PASSAGE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PANHANDLE WATERS
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH
ALL NORTHEAST GULF WATERS. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO MONDAY
THEN CLOCK TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA IS HELPING TURN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH, INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF MAINLY
WEST OF I-75 INTO TONIGHT WHILE A DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES INTO
TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF I-75. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
IS ON TAP BEHIND THE FRONT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLDER AIR, A
LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY FROM DEFUNIAK
SPRINGS EAST TO MARIANNA NORTHEAST TO FITZGERALD LINE. PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A VERY COLD
NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL NOT BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT, NOR
WILL THEY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE DROUGHT RELIEF.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 43 66 37 46 / 10 40 90 70
PANAMA CITY 52 67 37 48 / 30 60 90 50
DOTHAN 45 60 34 45 / 10 50 70 40
ALBANY 39 63 34 44 / 0 40 80 50
VALDOSTA 33 67 37 45 / 0 20 80 80
CROSS CITY 30 69 39 53 / 0 10 60 80
APALACHICOLA 52 65 38 47 / 30 50 90 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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