159
FXUS62 KTAE 171144
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
644 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (20 TO 60%) OF RAIN MIXING WITH
OR BRIEFLY TURNING TO SNOW ON SUNDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA, PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED IN SPOTS AND
WILL BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIP ON SUNDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL END AS A
COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-10
AND FLORIDA SR 20. ACCUMULATIONS, IF ANY, SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 1
INCH AND MAINLY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES, GIVEN WARM WEATHER
PRECEDING ANY SNOW. THERE ARE FEWER NO-SNOW GUIDANCE MEMBERS, BUT
NO MODELS SUGGEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER ONE INCH. HERE'S THE
SETUP...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW A COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT DOES NOT STAND OUT AS BEING PARTICULARLY
COLD. NONETHELESS, THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY, THEN SLOW
DOWN OR BRIEFLY TURN UP STATIONARY THIS EVENING FROM THE
PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS TO SOUTH- CENTRAL GEORGIA. IN ADVANCE OF
THAT FRONT TODAY, SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING
AND MOISTENING OF THE AIR MASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
BALMY 60S TODAY, EXCEPT UPPER 50S NW OF A DOTHAN-ALBANY LINE.
THEN TONIGHT, A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL QUICKLY ZIP ACROSS OUR
SERVICE AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL COMMENCE ALONG THE TEMPORARILY
STALLED FRONT, THANKS TO UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND JET STREAM DYNAMICS
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL 160-180 KNOT JET STREAK
ALONG THE I-85 AND I-95 CORRIDORS TO OUR NORTH. SO RAIN WILL BLOSSOM
ACROSS OUR REGION, FOCUSED NEAR THE TEMPORARILY STALLED FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT AND THE SHIELD OF RAIN WILL START TO MOVE EAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN ENTERING STAGE RIGHT WILL BE AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. EARLY THIS MORNING, THAT WINDY COLD
FRONT WAS BLASTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON ITS WAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THAT IS THE FRONT WITH SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR FOR
SNOW. IT WILL BE COMING IN FAST ON SUNDAY MORNING, ATTEMPTING TO
CATCH UP WITH THE EXITING BACK EDGE OF OUR RAIN SHIELD BEFORE THE
RAIN COMPLETELY EXITS OUR REGION AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE COLD AIR HAVING TO PLAY CATCH-UP WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE RAIN, THIS EXPLAINS WHY THE BETTER ODDS OF GETTING
SOME SNOW HAVE ARE OVER OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY, AS
THE UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND JET OFF PAST THE CAROLINA COAST. SO AS
YOU CAN SEE, THERE IS A LIMITED-TIME OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD. OVER OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES,
THE OVERLAP BETWEEN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE
SOMEWHAT NARROW. TO THE EAST OVER GEORGIA, THE SURGING COLD AIR
SHOULD WIDEN THAT LIGHT-SNOW- PRODUCING OVERLAP ZONE, SO THIS IS
WHERE THE BETTER ODDS (A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE) OF SOME SNOWFALL
EXISTS. MORE SPECIFICALLY, THE BETTER ODDS RUN NORTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM NASHVILLE GA TO CAMILLA TO BLAKELY AND ABBEVILLE,
INCLUDING PLACES LIKE CUTHBERT, SYLVESTER, ASHBURN, AND
FITZGERALD. LESSER ODDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE I-10 AND
EVEN TO THE WALTON COUNTY COAST, AS WELL AS WEST INTO ALABAMA.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS --- AND ESPECIALLY ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ---
WILL BE LIGHT. MUCH OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS FROM THE SKY WILL
MELT UPON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND, ESPECIALLY AFTER A WARM
SATURDAY AND HEADING INTO DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS MANAGE TO OCCUR, IT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 1 INCH AND
WOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES.
PRECIPITATION WILL END ABRUPTLY EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR WILL SURGE INBOUND, AND FULLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE BEFORE SUNSET. AS AIR TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S
WITH GUSTY WINDS, ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL MELT AND/OR DRY OFF
QUICKLY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, IF IT EVER EVEN GETS LEGS TO IT.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT FOR PLACES WITH
THE BETTER ODDS OF A DUSTING OF WET SNOW. THERE IS CERTAINLY ROOM
FOR LATER SHIFTS TO EXPAND THIS IF CONFIDENCE GROWS ELSEWHERE,
WITH THE INLAND FL PANHANDLE REPRESENTING THE AREA WITH MOST
POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE EXPANSION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT THE BEACHES ON MONDAY
MORNING. A FREEZE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. A DRY
REINFORCING FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL SIMPLY KEEP THE COLD AND DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATER WEDNESDAY. OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CLOCK AROUND TO A MUCH
MILDER EASTERLY DIRECTION.
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LATE IN THE WEEK WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
LOW EAST ACROSS THE GULF, PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AROUND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL EXTEND. NONETHELESS, THIS FEATURE WILL BRING OUT NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF OUR FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THIS FIRST
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE LATE-AFTERNOON/EARLY-
EVENING BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS
QUICKLY SWITCH TO BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
AS THE 2ND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SUNDAY. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY
AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS, RAIN MOVES IN ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
RAIN/SNOW MIX, ESPECIALLY AT DHN AND ABY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL THEN SHARPEN OVER THE PANHANDLE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FRESH NORTHERLIES BEHIND IT. THEN THE
FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING,
PUSHED ALONG BY STRONG AND NEAR-GALE NORTHERLIES. NORTHERLIES WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY, AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESTRENGTHEN THE
NORTHERLIES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO CLOCK AROUND EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS WILL SUPPORT ONLY POOR DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MANY PLACES
WILL GET A WETTING RAIN OF ONE- QUARTER INCH OR MORE. LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-10 COULD SEE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS LATER SUNDAY MORNING. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING. COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 66 37 46 27 / 50 90 70 0
PANAMA CITY 66 37 49 32 / 60 90 50 0
DOTHAN 59 33 46 25 / 60 80 30 0
ALBANY 61 34 45 24 / 50 90 60 0
VALDOSTA 64 36 44 25 / 20 90 90 0
CROSS CITY 69 42 47 26 / 0 80 80 0
APALACHICOLA 65 37 48 32 / 60 80 70 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ112-114-115.
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
GAZ120>131-142>144.
AL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ067.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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