243
FXUS62 KTAE 172322
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
622 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR
HENRY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES IN ALABAMA, JACKSON COUNTY FLORIDA,
AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA FROM SEMINOLE, DECATUR, MITCHELL,
COLQUITT, COOK, BERRIEN, AND COUNTIES NORTH OF THIS LINE.
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE MAINLY ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OF HAVE TURNED
NORTHERLY WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIGHT
RAIN AND SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GULF
WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE
FLORIDA COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW PROGRESSION EAST OR NEARLY STALLING FOR A LITTLE BIT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA. FURTHER
UPSTREAM, SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. BACK IN THAT REGION, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
TONIGHT, THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND
LARGE SCALE LIFT, ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL AID IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN
THROUGH SOUTHERN ALABAMA/FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SPREADING EAST WITH
TIME BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION, IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
ANTICIPATED COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SOUNDINGS BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A WINTRY MIX IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS. HERE, A MORE NARROW OPPORTUNITY FOR A MIX AS COMPARED TO
POINTS EAST AS RAIN IS MOVING EAST. FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA, THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE LONGER MIX WINDOW
AND THUS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SOME ACCUMULATIONS. THUS, THIS
IS WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS LOCATED. I DID ADD A FEW
COUNTIES FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH,
ADDING HOUSTON AND JACKSON COUNTIES, AS WELL AS SEMINOLE AND
DECATUR THROUGH MITCHELL EAST TO BERRIEN COUNTIES.
ACCUMULATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MINIMAL
IMPACTS, GENERALLY 1 INCH OR LESS. THIS ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
RELEGATED TO GRASSY SURFACES, ELEVATED SURFACES, AND CAR/ROOF
TOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
IN THE MIX ACCUMULATION AREA AND ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES BY AND
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
CLEARING SKIES, SUNNY SKIES RETURNING, AND HIGHS REACHING THE MID
40S, ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD MELT RATHER QUICKLY.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A BRIEF TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE THE AREA OF RAIN TRANSITIONS EAST. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH
PERHAPS A FURTHER EXTENSION THIS EVENING FURTHER WEST INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR A FEW MORE GEORGIA COUNTIES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WET FLAKES MIX IN
FROM GADSDEN/LEON COUNTIES AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT BUT THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IS POINTS WEST AND NORTH.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MONDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS 23-27F. LOW TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITERIA FOR THIS MODEL CYCLE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A FREEZE PRODUCT AT THIS TIME BUT DO ANTICIPATE THE
POSSIBILITY ON THE NEXT SHIFTS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
BEYOND THIS IMMEDIATE SYSTEM, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY ON ITS
HEELS, DIVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST US LATER TUESDAY THEN OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CLOCK
EAST, MODERATING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 60S FOR HIGHS
LATE NEXT WORK WEEK. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN, THOUGH PROBS ARE LOW, INTO THURSDAY AND
EARLY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT AROUND 10-12Z TOMORROW MORNING, THE RAIN
WILL BEGIN MIXING AND TRANSITIONING INTO LIGHT SNOW. THIS WILL
MAINLY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS (DHN AND ABY). HOWEVER, ALL
TERMINALS MAY SEE A TRANSITION AROUND THIS TIME, DHN AND ABY CAN
SEE ACCUMULATIONS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR AND IFR
AS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS FALLING SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY BE
GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR ALL TAF SITES.
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON,
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES BY 18Z FOR OUR WESTERN TERMINALS, AND CONTINUE
CLEARING TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED OUR WESTERN WATERS WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND BUOY 42028. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN GAIN
MOMENTUM LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ENVELOPE THE GULF WATERS WITH NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY IN OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERLIES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY, AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RESTRENGTHEN THE NORTHERLIES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CAUSE WINDS TO CLOCK AROUND EASTERLY
ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. MANY PLACES WILL GET A WETTING RAIN OF ONE-QUARTER INCH OR
MORE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-10 COULD SEE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATER SUNDAY MORNING. A HARD FREEZE IS
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY INTO SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FAVORING
EAST OF APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP LATER
THIS WEEK. AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT WITH THAT SYSTEM. THEREFORE, NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 37 46 27 53 / 100 90 0 0
PANAMA CITY 35 48 32 55 / 100 70 0 0
DOTHAN 33 44 26 52 / 90 50 0 0
ALBANY 33 44 25 51 / 90 80 0 0
VALDOSTA 36 46 25 52 / 90 100 0 0
CROSS CITY 41 53 26 56 / 70 90 0 0
APALACHICOLA 37 47 32 53 / 100 90 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR FLZ011.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR
FLZ112-114-115.
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155-156.
AL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ067-
069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ751-752-770-
772.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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