675
FXUS62 KTAE 181118
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
618 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 616 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
- FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE ALABAMA WIREGRASS NORTHEASTWARD INTO GEORGIA, WHERE A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. BE READY FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS THIS MORNING IN THE WARNING AREA.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE GULF WATERS.
- A FREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
THE MAIN WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL COMMENCE DURING THE UPCOMING
PRE-DAWN HOURS. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE
1-2 INCH RANGE FROM NEAR THE FL/AL STATE LINE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA ON OVER TO NEAR AND NORTH OF ALBANY. THIS TRIGGERED THE
RECENT UPGRADE OVER THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.
COLD AIR (SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW) WILL SPREAD PAST THE I-65
CORRIDOR SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT, IT
WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, BRINGING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING ACROSS
SE MS AND SW AL, AIDED BY DEEP LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A POWERFUL 300 MB JET STREAK TRANSLATING UP THE U.S. EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE CLOUD TOPS WILL BE A NOWCASTING ASPECT EARLY THIS
MORNING, SINCE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WILL COINCIDE WITH WHERE
THE DEEPEST LIFT AND MOISTURE CAN PRODUCE SNOWFLAKE GROWTH IN THE
COLDER, HIGHER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
GUIDANCE SINCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER WEST
WITH WINTRY PRECIP, AND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDING FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE ALABAMA WIREGRASS AND INLAND FL
PANHANDLE. THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG OUR NEWEST GUIDANCE FAVORING AN
AXIS OF HEAVIER 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM NEAR DOTHAN
NORTHEAST TO NEAR DAWSON AND LEESBURG GA, INCLUDING ALBANY. GIVEN
THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS THE INCOMING DRY AIR MIXES IN WITH THE
PRECIP, IT IS NOT SURPRISING TO SEE MORE AND MORE MEMBERS OF OUR
CAMS GUIDANCE SHOWING AIR TEMPERATURES OF 30-32 DEGREES WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP AS IT CROSSES THIS AREA. NUDGING TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO EVEN A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING INCREASES ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. SOME OF OUR FORECASTING TOOLS ALSO INCREASED SNOW
RATIOS IN THE WARNING AREA FROM 7:1 UP TO 10:1. WHEN ALSO
FACTORING IN AN INCREASE IN QPF OVER THE WARNING AREA, IT ALL
POINTS TO MORE POTENTIAL TO EXCEED 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION, WITH
POCKETS OF 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL. WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, SNOWFALL
RATES SUGGEST SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS. IN SHADED AREAS,
SOME RE-FREEZE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MORE
TERRITORY IN THE FL PANHANDLE. IN THE ADVISORY AREAS,
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH WILL PREVAIL. AIR TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING AS IT SNOWS AS WELL.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES.
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE EXISTING ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD,
CONSIDERING GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEST. NO CHANGES ON THE
EASTERN EXTENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL END ABRUPTLY AROUND MIDDAY, AS THE ALL-
IMPORTANT UPPER DYNAMICS AND LIFT QUICKLY EXITS OFF TO THE
CAROLINAS AND BEYOND. A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WHOLE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS, FULL SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MELT OFF MOST OF THE
SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES. IN THE WARNING AREA, SHADY SPOTS MAY HANG
ON TO SOME SNOW.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. LOWS OF 24-29 WILL BE MOST COMMON. HAVE OPTED FOR
NOW TO NOT ISSUE A (HARD) FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT (CRITERIA 25
DEGREES OR LESS). DESPITE A FEW PLACES OVER AL/GA WITH LOWS
23-25, IT IS NOT WIDESPREAD, AND HREF SHOWS ONLY LOW CHANCE ODDS
OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 25 DEGREES CENTERED OVER THE FLINT VALLEY ON
MONDAY MORNING. THE UPCOMING DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE ONE MORE
OPPORTUNITY TO ASSESS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
LOW IMPACT WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THANKS
PARTLY TO A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CLOCK AROUND TO A MILDER EASTERLY DIRECTION
ON WEDNESDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NC COAST.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH THE BROADLY CYCLONIC JET STREAM FLOW COULD
STIR UP A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THURSDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT
SATURDAY, BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
RAIN IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ACROSS DHN AND BY 13Z IT
WILL LIKELY TRANSITIONED AT ECP TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THIS WILL THEN
OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING, AROUND 14Z, AT ABY. FURTHER EAST AT
TLH/VLD, A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS NOT LIKELY SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
THE MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A MIX CAN'T BE
RULED OUT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR AND IFR AS THE
RAIN AND SNOW IS FALLING THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY BE GUSTING UP TO
20 KTS DURING THE RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR ALL TAF SITES. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES BY 18Z FOR OUR WESTERN TERMINALS, AND CONTINUE CLEARING TO
THE EAST BY 21Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE GULF WATERS TO
A GALE WARNING. GUIDANCE HAS INCREASE ON NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS
THIS MORNING BEHIND THE INCOMING FRONT, WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS
NOW EXPECTED.
FROM CWF SYNOPSIS... A SURGE OF GALE-FORCE NORTHERLIES WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING, FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. NORTHERLIES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY, AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RESTRENGTHEN THE NORTHERLIES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CAUSE WINDS TO CLOCK AROUND EASTERLY
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN. THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA, AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD AND
DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL START TO MODERATE AND MOISTEN SOME ON
WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE
OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 46 27 53 29 / 100 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 47 32 54 33 / 90 0 0 0
DOTHAN 44 26 51 27 / 90 0 0 0
ALBANY 44 24 51 24 / 100 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 47 25 52 27 / 100 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 54 26 56 29 / 90 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 46 32 53 34 / 100 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ009-011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
FLZ007-008-010-012-013-016-326.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ112-114.
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ120>128-142>145.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ129>131-
146>148-155>157.
AL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ730-
751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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