699
FXUS62 KTAE 190200
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 858 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
- A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FOR
ALL INLAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN
INLAND FLORIDA COUNTIES AND LOW TO MID 20S THROUGH SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR INLAND FLORIDA
COUNTIES. WIND CHILLS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 858 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
REQUIRED. A (HARD) FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID
20S. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME TIME OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO WIND CHILLS ALSO BEING IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS WHAT SNOW FELL THIS MORNING
QUICKLY DISAPPEARING FROM SIGHT AS CLOUDS DECREASE AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS BAND OF CLOUDS CONTINUES
RACING EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES IN THE CLEARING ARE REACHING THE LOW
40S WITH LOW TO MID 40S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS NORTH OF THE FLORIDA
STATE LINE AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
TONIGHT AS CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 20S. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE FROM 09-14Z. AS
WELL, ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR INLAND FLORIDA COUNTIES
AS WIND CHILLS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
KEEPING OUR WINDS NORTHERLY BUT MODIFYING THE AIRMASS SOMEWHAT.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
AND 50S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
ONE MORE COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 20S. HEADING INTO TUESDAY, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE CAROLINAS AND ALSO SHIFT
OUR WINDS EASTERLY. HIGHS WILL MODERATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPEARS
LATE THIS WORK WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN STANDING
AROUND 20-40%. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM, HIGHS HEADING INTO SATURDAY
REACH TOWARDS 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 858 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
THIS EVENING, THE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE AROUND
EXERCISE CAUTION AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RESTRENGTHEN THE NORTHERLIES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WILL CAUSE WINDS TO CLOCK AROUND EASTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL START TO MODERATE AND MOISTEN
SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS CLOCK TO EASTERLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER
THIS WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINS TO THE REGION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 27 52 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 31 54 33 55 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 25 51 28 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 25 49 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 25 52 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 26 56 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 32 53 35 54 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/
MONDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-326-426.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 9 AM EST /8 AM
CST/ MONDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-326-426.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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