915
FXUS62 KTAE 190634
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
134 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 134 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING
IN INLAND FLORIDA COUNTIES, WITH LOW TO MID 20S THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT.
- COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL GET UNDERWAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY. NO HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
AFTER ALL THE WEEKEND EXCITEMENT, COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A DRY REINFORCING FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING WILL SIMPLY REFRESH THE EXISTING COLD DRY AIR MASS,
SO NO SENSIBLE CHANGE IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN DRY, AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COATING OF FROST WILL GREET THE RISING SUN THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. FROST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE A
BIT MORE SPOTTY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY EASTERLY.
WILL HOLD OFF HOISTING ANY COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS TO TARGET TUESDAY
MORNING AND LET DAY SHIFT REASSESS. FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS,
PERCENTILE-BASED MOS FROM THE EPS AND NBM SHOWS ONLY ABOUT A 10-20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DROPPING BELOW OUR HARD FREEZE CRITERIA OF 25
DEGREES TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS OF 4 MPH OR LESS WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE
SUBSTANTIALLY TO WIND CHILL. SO WE MAY SQUEAK BY WITHOUT COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES TONIGHT. REGARDLESS OF HEADLINES, IT WILL STILL BE
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND FROST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF CLOUDS, A LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN, AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE NC COAST,
BRINGING A TURN TO MILDER EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. SO, MARITIME-INFLUENCED AIR WILL SPREAD WESTWARD FROM
THE ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, 850-500 MB FLOW WILL BACK SOMEWHAT FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY, IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL PASS ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN ON
WEDNESDAY, BECOMING OPAQUE DURING THE DAY AND THEN LOWERING ON WED
NIGHT AND THU. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDES A LOW CHANCE (15-25
PERCENT) OF RAIN ON THURSDAY, BUT WE WILL KIND OF BE STUCK BETWEEN
RICHER MOISTURE SOUTH OF 28N (THE LATITUDE OF CENTRAL FL), AND
MORE FOCUSED LIFT OVER NORTHERN AL AND GA. SO IF WE DO GET ANY
RAIN, IT WILL BE LIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI SHOULD FEATURE A LULL AS THAT WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE EXITS EAST.
BEYOND FRIDAY, DETAILS OF THE FORECAST BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. WHAT
WE KNOW IS THAT A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL BE
AFFECTING THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER, AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG A COLD
SURFACE HIGH (1045-1050 MB!) ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL BE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
SHALLOW SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG HIGH WILL BE OOZING SOUTH
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES. IT WILL TRY TO BRIDGE SOUTH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BUT THEN IT IS
UNCERTAIN IF IT BUCKLES BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEKEND DUE
TO ANY SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES. IF IT GETS SOUTH AND STAYS
SOUTH, THEN WE WILL HAVE A COLD, GRAY WEEKEND. IF A DISTURBANCE
COMES ALONG, THEN A WARM SECTOR COULD SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR
REGION, KEEPING US MILD AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY. BY NEXT SUNDAY, THE
LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS A 15-20 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE VALUES. THE
DIFFERENCE ON DAY 7 BETWEEN 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES IS
ABOUT 30 DEGREES! OF COURSE, 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE VALUES
TYPICALLY FORM A "MOST LIKELY" RANGE. AT TLH FOR EXAMPLE NEXT
SUNDAY, THIS MOST LIKELY RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IS WIDE,
RANGING FROM 50 DEGREES TO 70 DEGREES. SO WHILE WE THINK WE KNOW
HOW SOME ASPECTS OF THE BIG PICTURE WEATHER SETUP WILL LOOK, THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE IMPORTANT TO RESOLVE
IN THE WEEK AHEAD. IN SUCH A BAROCLINIC AND GRADIENT- DOMINATED
ENVIRONMENT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE COMING INTO PLAY, RAIN
CHANCES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTH
AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 134 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, FRESHENING
A LITTLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK REINFORCING FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SO WIND FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
CLOCK AROUND MODERATE EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH AS SOON AS
FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A FRESHENING NORTHEAST BREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. FROST IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY MORNING. FROST COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A MODERATING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY ON WEDNESDAY, AS A
TURN TO MILDER AND MORE HUMID EASTERLY FLOW TAKES PLACE. WEDNESDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE POOR DAYTIME DISPERSION, THANKS TO LOW MIXING
HEIGHTS AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 134 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
RIVERS RESPONDED MINIMALLY, IF AT ALL, FOLLOWING THIS PAST
WEEKENDS BENEFICIAL RAIN.
RIVER ENSEMBLE FORECASTS NOW SHOW THAT RIVERS FLOWING SOUTH OUT
OF OR THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA (KINCHAFOONEE, MUCKALEE, FLINT) HAVE
A BETTER THAN 50-50 CHANCE OF SEEING RISES STARTING ABOUT A WEEK
FROM NOW, CONDITIONAL ON HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEKEND OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GEORGIA. RISES WOULD BE UNIMPACTFUL, GIVEN
THAT THERE IS STILL NO REASONABLE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING OR
OTHER TYPES OF FLOODING IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 53 30 54 34 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 54 34 55 38 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 52 28 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 51 25 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 53 28 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 56 28 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 54 34 55 43 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/
THIS MORNING FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-326-426.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 9 AM EST /8 AM
CST/ THIS MORNING FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-326-426.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page