740
FXUS62 KTAE 192305
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
605 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 604 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF WINDS MEETING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR COASTAL WATERS BEYOND
20 NAUTICAL MILES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
- COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL GET UNDERWAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
EXPECT WIDESPREAD 20S FOR LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING AWAY FROM THE
COAST. BUT COMPARED TO THIS PAST MONDAY MORNING, DO NOT EXPECT A
WIDESPREAD "HARD" FREEZE (TEMPERATURES AOB 25F), WITH SOME POCKETS
OF LOW TO MID-20S MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE FLINT RIVER
IN SOUTHWEST GA. ON TUESDAY, HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS
STREAMING IN OVERHEAD. AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S, TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL WITH
WAA UNDERWAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-50S TO MID-50S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
LOW SHOWER CHANCES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
GRADUALLY ERODES WITH NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON BOTH DAYS WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE FL BIG BEND.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND, A MORE COMPLEX PATTERN SETS UP
WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR WINTER WEATHER, THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF WHICH IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 6-7 DAYS OUT. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO TRUSTED SOURCES OF INFORMATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5-7 KT AFTER 14-15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL LOCK IN
EASTERLY WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
THERE IS A MEDIUM (50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20
KNOTS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES, WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. LIGHTER
EASTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD PROMOTE TRANQUIL
BOATING CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. FROST IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING.
FROST COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
MODERATING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY ON WEDNESDAY, AS A TURN TO MILDER
AND MORE HUMID EASTERLY FLOW TAKES PLACE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO
FEATURE POOR DAYTIME DISPERSION, THANKS TO LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 53 28 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 54 33 57 39 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 52 27 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 51 24 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 53 26 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 56 27 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 54 34 56 43 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...LF
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