230
FXUS62 KTAE 201123
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
623 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS BEYOND 20
NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF MINOR WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND ICE THIS WEEKEND ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR (EUFAULA TO ALBANY TO TIFTON). CHECK
BACK THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES BECOMES MORE
NARROW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
A RENEWED PUSH FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL REFRESH OUR
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES
EAST, OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT.
PLENTY OF LOCATIONS WILL GET A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT, BUT FEWER
LOCATIONS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE 20S, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FL
STATE LINE. NONETHELESS, IT SHOULD STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
FROST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN
BEFORE SUNRISE, WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE COOLING AND FROST
FORMATION BEFORE SUNRISE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES,
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR (EUFAULA-ALBANY-
TIFTON), TO GET IMPACTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FURTHER NORTH IN GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA. IF WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPERIENCED ALL THE WAY
SOUTH TO THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR, IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING RAIN AND ICE. IT WILL BE WORTH CHECKING BACK ON THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK AS THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES BECOMES NARROWER.
HERE'S THE SETUP...
A BROAD AND ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AND BEYOND, ANCHORED BY AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE COLD AND DRY AIR MASS THAT WE
ALREADY HAVE IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE, A 500 MB LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING A MORE ACTIVE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM THAT WILL EXTEND EAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST LATE THIS WEEK. ALSO, OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING THE RETURN OF A
WARMER AND MOISTER AIR MASS.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AN IMPRESSIVELY COLD AND STRONG 1040-1050
MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM MINNESOTA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NORTHEAST U.S.. WITH SUCH A STRONG AND COLD SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTH, THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, REPRESENTING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR, WILL SURGE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE DEEP SOUTH,
IT WILL BECOME QUITE SHALLOW AS THE COLD, DENSE AIR MASS OOZES
SOUTHWARD BENEATH THE MILD SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ALONG THE GULF
COAST.
THAT 500 MB SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST ON THURSDAY WILL THEN EJECT AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ZIPPING PAST OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE THAT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. THE
EASY PART OF THE FORECAST IS SAYING THAT RAIN WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AS JET STREAM DYNAMICS INTERACT
WITH OUR CONSIDERABLY MOISTENED AIR MASS.
THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING HOW THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR WILL BEHAVE. THE EASTWARD-MOVING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WARM SECTOR, AND
LIKELY A TEMPORARY NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE COLD AIR MASS. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT GEFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS VARY THE PATH OF THAT
IMPORTANT FEATURE ANYWHERE BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST GULF AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD BETTER HOLD THE SHALLOW COLD
AIR IN PLACE AND LEAD TO ICING TO THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR. A MORE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD PUSH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD AIR NORTH
FOR LONG ENOUGH TO SPARE THAT CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, A NORTHERN TRACK
COULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH WARM UNSTABLE AIR NORTH TO SUPPORT SOME
LOW-END RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION.
TO DEMONSTRATE HOW IMPORTANT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE, CONSIDER THE
NBM PERCENTILES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY AT FITZGERALD.
THERE IS A WILDLY LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ITS 10TH PERCENTILE AND
90TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY, RANGING FROM 32
DEGREES TO 72 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. YES, THAT ACTUALLY MEANS THERE
IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF THE HIGH AT FITZGERALD RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 32 DEGREES TO 72 DEGREES. THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE
REPRESENTS FREEZING RAIN.
FOR NOW, THE PROBABILISTIC CHARACTERIZATION WOULD BE TO SAY THAT
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF IMPACTFUL ICING AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. YOU CAN SEE WHY WE URGE YOU TO CHECK
BACK ON THE FORECAST THIS WEEK AS THE WILDLY LARGE RANGE OF
FORECAST POSSIBILITIES GETS MORE NARROW, ESPECIALLY RELATED TO
WHERE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THAT SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE DURING
THE HEAVIEST RAIN THIS WEEKEND.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL HEAD OUT WITH IT. COLDER AIR WILL
COME SURGING SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE SERVICE AREA. THE CPC 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JAN. 25-29 SHOWS A HIGH CHANCE OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE DEALING WITH
MORE FREEZING NIGHTS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTH
AND WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 148 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. BREEZES WILL CLOCK AROUND
EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE ATLANTIC. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BRIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A FRESHENING A OF THE EASTERLY FLOW. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE
SATURDAY, BRINGING A TURN TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE
FROST WILL GREET THE RISING SUN THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANGE WILL START TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY, AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW CLOCKS AROUND TO A MILDER EASTERLY DIRECTION.
HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO THICKEN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE SHADING CONTRIBUTING TO ONLY POOR AND FAIR AFTERNOON
DISPERSION. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
GET WARMER AND MORE HUMID.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 148 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 56 34 62 46 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 58 38 62 48 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 55 32 59 44 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 54 29 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 55 31 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 60 32 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 57 42 60 51 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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