075
FXUS62 KTAE 210700
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
200 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
- A MILDER AIR MASS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF MINOR WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND ICE FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR (EUFAULA TO
ALBANY TO TIFTON). CHECK BACK IN THE DAYS AHEAD AS THE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES NARROWS AND THE FORECAST COMES INTO SHARPER FOCUS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON TUE EVNG WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NC COAST THIS
MORNING. IN RESPONSE, OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ALREADY CLOCKING
AROUND FROM A MILDER EASTERLY DIRECTION. A WEAKER LOBE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN LINGER ALONG THE SC COAST ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, KEEPING A WEAKER EAST OR SOUTHEAST BREEZE GOING.
IN THIS SETUP, EXPECT DAY-TO-DAY WARMING OF TEMPERATURES. THE
GROWING MARITIME INFLUENCE ON OUR AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY BOOST
DEWPOINTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A FEW LOW-CHANCE CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND.
SPECIFICALLY, WE ARE REFERRING TO A LOW CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR IN GEORGIA. WE ARE ALSO
WATCHING A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH OVER
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. HERE'S THE SETUP...
A BROAD, COLD, AND ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL HOLD A
MULTI-DAY AVERAGE POSITION ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, THEN TRANSITION EAST TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST NEXT
WEEK. WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH, A STRONG INTRUSION OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL DRIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRIVEN BY A 1050+ MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH WILL MOVE TO PA/NY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STILL-STRONG 1040 MB HIGH. STRONG GRADIENTS ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS EXTREMELY STRONG HIGH WILL HELP TO PUSH
COLD AIR WELL SOUTH INTO ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND. THE
CHANNELED COLD AIR DAMMING PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH VIRGINIA AND
THE CAROLINAS WILL BE AN INTERESTING ASPECT TO WATCH FOR OUR GA
COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM, WHICH HAS BEEN SEEMINGLY
ABSENT FOR MUCH OF THIS COLD SEASON, WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THAT UPPER LOW
WILL DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO LATE
SATURDAY, THEN SAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY. A
SURFACE LOW OR FRONTAL WAVE WILL ZIP EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE COLD AIR MENTIONED IN THE LAST PARAGRAPH. PRECEDING AND
SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK, THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. THERE
SHOULD EVEN BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
ONE OF THE GREAT UNRESOLVED QUESTIONS WILL BE THE HANDLING OF THE
SHALLOW SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE POLAR AIR MASS. WHERE SUFFICIENTLY
COLD AIR HANGS IN THERE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND
ICE. THE HEART OF THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF OUR
SERVICE AREA, FOR EXAMPLE UP NEAR ATLANTA METRO. NONETHELESS,
THERE REMAINS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES AND ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE U.S.
82 CORRIDOR. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, THESE ODDS HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE, AND THE NBM'S PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN HAS ACTUALLY
DROPPED A LITTLE AS FAR SOUTH AS ALBANY. THE 00Z GEFS PLUME
DIAGRAM NOW SHOWS A 15 PERCENT CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY
SUNDAY AT ABY, DOWN FROM THE 20 PERCENT THAT WAS BEING SHOWS 24
HOURS AGO. AT FIRST GLANCE, THAT SMALL REDUCTION SEEMS LIKE GOOD
NEWS, BUT THERE ARE FEW THINGS TO BE MORE DISTRUSTFUL OF IN
WEATHER MODELS MORE THAN THE HANDLING OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. A FEW
MILES OF DIFFERENCE ON THE EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS CAN MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN THE OUTCOME OF PRECIPITATION TYPE. IF ANYTHING,
THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR HEAVY, DENSE, SHALLOW COLD AIR TO BE MORE
STUBBORN AND ADVANCE FURTHER THAN GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE. SO THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO CONTINUE WATCHING.
SPEAKING OF WATCHING, ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AIRCRAFT RECON MISSIONS
HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND TASKED WITH FLYING A LARGE AREA OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TO HELP INITIALIZE THE NEXT THREE ROUNDS
OF 00Z MODELS, STARTING WED PM. SAMPLING THIS AREA WILL BE
CRUCIAL IN ACCURATELY MODELING THE RESURGENT SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM AND ITS CONSEQUENTIAL EFFECT ON THE SOUTHERN U.S. WINTER
STORM.
EVEN IF WE GET NO WINTRY PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA, IF YOU HAVE
PLANS TO TRAVEL NORTH THIS WEEKEND TOWARD MEMPHIS, BIRMINGHAM,
NASHVILLE, ATLANTA, NORTH CAROLINA, OR VIRGINIA, KEEP TABS ON
WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM.
ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
COLD AIR WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE SWEEPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING BY THEN, AND PROSPECTS FOR WINTRY
PRECIP WILL FADE AWAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE AIR MASS AFFECTING THE REGION NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
VERY COLD. EXPECT HARD FREEZES FOR ALL BUT THE BEACHES ON TUESDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
MORNING. ON ITS PERIPHERY, THE WATERS WILL GET A FRESH EASTERLY
BREEZE THIS MORNING. A WEAKENED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY, KEEPING LIGHTER
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF SATURDAY, THEN MOVE UP TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TURN TO FRESHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONCE
THE LOW PASSES, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
A TURN TO EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS
MORNING. WEAK EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASINGLY MILD AIR MASS ACROSS THE
DISTRICTS. EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF SEASONABLY LOW
MIXING HEIGHTS, SOMEWHAT WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS, AND THE RETURN OF
CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO MERELY FAIR AND POOR DAYTIME DISPERSION.
OVER THE WEEKEND, WETTING RAINS WILL AFFECT MOST DISTRICTS, AS A
SHARP COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA, AND THE
JET STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. FOR GEORGIA DISTRICTS ALONG THE
NORTH OF THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MINOR
IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN AROUND SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR
FLOODING.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT TO SEE MODEST RISES ON RIVERS FLOWING
SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL GEORGIA, NAMELY THE KINCHAFOONEE, MUCKALEE,
AND FLINT, DUE TO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND NEAR THE
HEADWATERS OF THOSE RIVERS. THOUGH THESE RIVERS WILL NOT EVEN
REACH ACTION STAGE, ANY RISE ON THESE RIVERS WOULD BE NOTEWORTHY
AFTER MONTHS OF DROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 46 73 49 72 / 0 0 0 20
PANAMA CITY 49 69 51 69 / 0 0 10 30
DOTHAN 45 71 48 69 / 0 10 20 30
ALBANY 42 71 46 69 / 0 0 10 20
VALDOSTA 44 74 48 73 / 0 0 0 20
CROSS CITY 48 76 49 77 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 52 65 53 67 / 0 0 0 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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