994
FXUS62 KTAE 212342
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
642 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
- THERE IS A LOW (20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF MINOR WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND ICE FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR (EUFAULA
TO ALBANY TO TIFTON). CHECK BACK DAILY AS THE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES NARROWS AND THE FORECAST COMES INTO SHARPER FOCUS.
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY
MORNING, WHEN THERE IS A MEDIUM (40-70%) CHANCE FOR DANGEROUSLY
LOW WIND CHILLS IN SOUTHEAST AL, SOUTHWEST GA, AND THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-80%) CHANCE
OF A HARD FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
LOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
GRADUALLY ERODES WITH NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON BOTH DAYS WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE FL BIG BEND WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH IMPACTS WILL EXTEND INTO
OUR REGION, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS SETUP IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY A
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES,
WHILE A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OF GULF AND SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS
MOVES NORTHWARD LEADING TO OVERRULING PRECIPITATION.
AS MENTIONED, THE QUESTION IS THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT AND TIMING OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND DOES THIS IMPACT OUR AREA. THE MAIN CHANGE
FROM YESTERDAY IS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN, WHICH IMPLIES A
WARMER AIR MASS. WHILE PROBABILITIES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY, THERE
IS A LOW (20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS FROM
FREEZING RAIN AND ICE FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR (EUFAULA TO ALBANY TO TIFTON).
THIS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF THE COLD AIR IS IN PLACE
(SINCE THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE) AND AS LATE AS MONDAY MORNING
IF THE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE (SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE COLD
AIR).
IN ADDITION, CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO
THE SOUTH OF ANY POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP AND THE TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE.
THIS POTENTIAL WEATHER EVENT IS STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT, AND THERE WILL
BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST, SO STAY TUNED. DON'T ANCHOR ON ANY
SPECIFIC MODEL RUNS AND KEEP UPDATED ON THE FORECAST DAILY THROUGH
TRUSTED SOURCES OF INFORMATION. IN PARTICULAR, OUR DETERMINISTIC
POINT AND CLICK FORECAST WILL CHANGE, SO IT'S BEST TO FOCUS ON THE
PROBABILISTIC MESSAGING WE'RE POSTING VIA OUR WEBSITE GRAPHICASTS
AND SOCIAL MEDIA.
A VERY COLD AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY
MORNING, WHEN THERE IS A MEDIUM (40-70%) CHANCE FOR DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS IN SOUTHEAST AL, SOUTHWEST GA, AND THE FL PANHANDLE.
THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-80%) CHANCE OF A HARD
FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL LOCK IN EASTERLY WINDS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WATERS ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO ROUGHER BOATING CONDITIONS,
WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 50%) CHANCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED BY SUNDAY, WITH THIS POTENTIAL INCREASING FURTHER INTO
THE MEDIUM CATEGORY (50 TO 70%) BY MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
WEAK EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY,
BRINGING AN INCREASINGLY MILD AIR MASS ACROSS THE DISTRICTS. EACH
DAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN THE
LAST. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF SEASONABLY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS, SOMEWHAT
WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY, AND THE RETURN OF CLOUD COVER
WILL LEAD TO MERELY FAIR AND POOR DAYTIME DISPERSION. OVER THE
WEEKEND, WETTING RAINS WILL AFFECT MOST DISTRICTS, AS A SHARP COLD
FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA, AND THE JET STREAM
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. FOR GEORGIA DISTRICTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
U.S. 82 CORRIDOR, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MINOR IMPACTS FROM
FREEZING RAIN AROUND SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AS RAINFALL THIS
WEEKEND WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR FLOODING.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT TO SEE MODEST RISES ON RIVERS FLOWING
SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL GEORGIA, NAMELY THE KINCHAFOONEE, MUCKALEE,
AND FLINT, DUE TO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND NEAR THE
HEADWATERS OF THOSE RIVERS. THOUGH THESE RIVERS WILL NOT EVEN
REACH ACTION STAGE, ANY RISE ON THESE RIVERS WOULD BE NOTEWORTHY
AFTER MONTHS OF DROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 48 74 49 75 / 10 0 0 20
PANAMA CITY 51 70 52 71 / 10 10 10 20
DOTHAN 46 71 49 72 / 10 10 20 30
ALBANY 44 71 47 72 / 10 10 10 20
VALDOSTA 45 74 48 75 / 0 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 48 76 49 78 / 10 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 53 66 52 67 / 10 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...HANER/LF
HYDROLOGY...HANER/LF
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