938
FXUS62 KTAE 221117
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
617 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
- THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH
GEORGIA HAS DECREASED TO THE POINT THAT IT IS NO LONGER A
REASONABLE CONCERN THAT FAR SOUTH.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. A SHARP FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG SOUTHERLIES, THEN PROCEEDED BY
STRONG NORTHERLIES.
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWING
A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING, WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE
OF A HARD FREEZE OVER INLAND AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING
TREND THAT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THICK CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING SHOULD THIN OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON, SO SOME
RAYS OF SUN SHOULD BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW MOISTENS THE AIR MASS, WE HAVE
INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND LOWER ALABAMA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
THE LOW CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. 82 THIS WEEKEND HAS DECREASED TO THE POINT THAT
IT IS NO LONGER A REASONABLE CONCERN (NOW A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OR
LESS ALONG THE EUFAULA-ALBANY-TIFTON CORRIDOR). THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE AND SURFACE LOW COMING ACROSS ON SUNDAY HAS CHOSEN A
MORE NORTHWARD TRACK ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AND HAS
BECOME A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS MEANS THAT
THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW WILL BE ABLE TO EXPAND WELL
NORTH THROUGH GEORGIA AND ALABAMA, SO THIS HAS PUSHED THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT COMFORTABLY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ARE PHASING
OUT THE MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP FROM THE KEY MESSAGES SECTION AT
THE TOP OF THE AFD. STILL, FOLKS PLANNING TO TRAVEL NORTH OF OUR
REGION THIS WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP TABS ON THE FORECAST AND HAVE A
CONTINGENCY FOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS.
AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY
NIGHT, THEN TEXAS EARLY SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ACCELERATING AS IT
PHASES WITH AND GETS SWEPT EAST INTO THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. IT WILL ZIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE SUNDAY. IT WILL GENERATE A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST, WHICH WILL THEN TRACK E-NE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER SUNDAY. THE LOW
WILL HAVE A NICE FRONTAL STRUCTURE, WITH A PRECEDING WARM SECTOR
SURGING NORTH THROUGHOUT OUR AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR, WE MAY NEED
TO WATCH FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY, POSING A LOW-END
SEVERE THREAT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL FEATURE WEAK CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND ABOUT 45-60 KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THE WARM
LAYER SHOULD FEATURE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO PARTIALLY CAP
THE AIR MASS, BUT FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND LARGE- SCALE LIFT
COULD HELP OVERCOME THE THERMODYNAMIC CAP.
ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY
EVENING, A STRONG AND SHARP TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PIVOT AND
PLOW SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD EXIT BEFORE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES, SO NO SNOW THIS TIME. HOWEVER, A SHARPLY COLDER AIR
MASS WILL BE DRIVING IN EARLY MONDAY ON STRONG NORTH WINDS. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 40S AND 50S. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. PROBABILITY-BASED GUIDANCE SHOWS A MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCE (60-80 PERCENT) OF A HARD FREEZE (25 DEGREES OR
LESS) ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THE CENTER OF A COLD SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT, SO COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT ECP/VLD IF IT DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 137 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
KEEP GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES GOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, FRESHENING THE EASTERLY BREEZES. A
LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF ON SATURDAY
NIGHT, THEN PASS ACROSS GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. A SHARP TRAILING FRONT
WILL PIVOT SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY FRESH SOUTHERLIES EARLY SUNDAY, THEN FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NORTHERLIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 137 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WEAKENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DAY-TO-DAY WARMING TREND TODAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY BOTH DAYS. WHEN COMBINED WITH
SEASONABLY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND SOMETIMES-THICK CLOUD COVER,
YOU SHOULD ONLY EXPECT FAIR TO POOR AFTERNOON DISPERSION VALUES
THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING,
BRINGING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN HOLD ITS GRIP ON OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE AND LOWER ALABAMA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 137 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AS RAINFALL THIS
WEEKEND WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR FLOODING.
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT TO SEE MODEST RISES ON
RIVERS FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL GEORGIA --- NAMELY THE
KINCHAFOONEE, MUCKALEE, AND FLINT --- DUE TO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND NEAR THE HEADWATERS OF THOSE RIVERS.
THOUGH THESE RIVERS WILL NOT EVEN REACH ACTION STAGE, ANY RISE ON
THESE RIVERS WOULD BE NOTEWORTHY AFTER MONTHS OF DROUGHT AND LOW
FLOW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 74 49 74 54 / 0 0 10 10
PANAMA CITY 70 53 69 53 / 10 10 30 20
DOTHAN 72 51 69 49 / 10 10 40 20
ALBANY 72 47 70 48 / 0 10 30 20
VALDOSTA 74 48 74 51 / 0 0 10 10
CROSS CITY 76 49 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 66 54 67 55 / 0 0 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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