371
FXUS62 KTAE 222334
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
634 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (30 TO 50%) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH A MEDIUM
(40 TO 70%) CHANCE OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS NORTHWEST OF THE
FL BIG BEND MONDAY MORNING, AND A MEDIUM TO HIGH (60 TO 90%) CHANCE
OF A WIDESPREAD "HARD" FREEZE OVER INLAND AREAS TUESDAY MORNING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE CHANCE OF MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS LOW TO MEDIUM
(20 TO 50%) SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND INCREASES TO MEDIUM TO HIGH
(60 TO 90%) SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AND A FRONT SAGGING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LEADS TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF THE FL BIG BEND, FOCUSED ON THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING IN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FL
PANHANDLE AND THE FL SUWANNEE VALLEY. SOME LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN WALTON CO. LOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID-40S TO MID-50S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY MID-60S TO
MID-70S. ON SATURDAY, WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA, NORTHEAST
FLOW, AND CLOUD COVER, GUIDANCE HAS COME AROUND TO HIGHS IN THE
MID-50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE AL/GA COUNTIES (THIS MAY BE GENEROUS)
WITH MID-60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHILE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS SHIFTED SAFELY NORTH OF THE
REGION, NOW THAT WE'RE ON THE "WARM SIDE" OF THE STORM SYSTEM,
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS INCREASING ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD WEATHER
BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING INTO MIDWEEK.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STEADY
OR SLIGHTLY WARMING (NON-DIURNAL) TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A NORTH-SOUTH
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT LEAST TO START THE DAY, RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO 70 DEGREES SOUTH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT/PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH, AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST LOW
INSTABILITY AND HIGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE CAPPED, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT/TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER-
STORMS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH, AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. PRELIMINARY TIMING IS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHEAST AL AND AS LATE AS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE FL BIG BEND.
STAY TUNED FOR REFINED FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ANY
OUTDOOR PLANS ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A VERY COLD AIR MASS WHICH FILTERS INTO
THE REGION MONDAY MORNING AND STICKS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM (40 TO 70%) CHANCE OF DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS NORTHWEST OF THE FL BIG BEND MONDAY MORNING, AND A
MEDIUM TO HIGH (60 TO 90%) CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD "HARD" FREEZE
OVER INLAND AREAS TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG AND
AREAS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY FOR ECP AND DHN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST, WINDS CLOCK FURTHER AROUND TO THE EAST AND BECOME FRESH
ON SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME FRESH SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS, THEN CLOCK AROUND IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. THE CHANCE OF MEETING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 50%) SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AND INCREASES TO MEDIUM TO HIGH (60 TO 90%) SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
A FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR SPOTTY
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE FL BIG BEND,
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS ON
FRIDAY GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST, BECOMING STRONGER ON SATURDAY AS
THEY CLOCK AROUND TO THE EAST, WITH GENERAL LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND
SOMETIMES THICK CLOUD COVER BOTH DAYS PROMOTING FAIR TO POOR
DISPERSION BOTH AFTERNOONS. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES, WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, BECOMING
STRONG AND GUSTY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALSO, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING MAY LEAD TO ERRATIC WINDS. FOLLOWING THE
FRONT, VERY COLD AND DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS RAINFALL WILL BE CENTERED ON SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
LESS THAN 1/2 INCH IN FL BIG BEND TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST
AL AND THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE, WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF
OUR REGION. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ANY
LAND OR RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 49 73 53 68 / 0 20 10 20
PANAMA CITY 54 68 53 69 / 10 30 20 10
DOTHAN 52 68 48 63 / 20 30 20 20
ALBANY 47 70 47 58 / 10 20 10 20
VALDOSTA 48 74 51 63 / 0 20 10 20
CROSS CITY 48 78 53 73 / 0 10 0 10
APALACHICOLA 53 67 55 65 / 0 20 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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