643
FXUS62 KTAE 231109
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
609 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 605 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR A HARD
FREEZE ARE HIGH (>70%) MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. THERE IS AT
LEAST A MEDIUM CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LOW (10-30%) SATURDAY, AND INCREASES TO MEDIUM TO HIGH (60 TO
90%) SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE (30-50%) OF GALE FORCE GUSTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST TODAY. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY MAY INDUCE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE
CENTRAL TIME ZONE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, LITTLE IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SATURDAY. COLD AIR DAMMING AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS COULD SEND
SOME COLDER AIR INTO OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID
50S ALONG AND NORTH OF US 82, UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SOUTHWARD TO
I-10, AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-10. HOWEVER, THIS MAY
NOT BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA WITH SOME OF THE
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THIS
IS A TYPICAL SCENARIO WHERE WE CAN BUST SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR DAMMING. MORE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MULTIPLE IMPACTS, INCLUDING SEVERE, MARINE, WIND, AND
COLD IMPACTS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF,
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-
ATLANTIC BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SUNDAY, PLACING
OUR ENTIRE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE STRONG LLJ OF 35-45 KT
WILL ERODE WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KT. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY, THE
BEST DYNAMICS WILL QUICKLY BE LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OVERLAP OF THE INGREDIENTS TO LEAD
TO SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS TIME,
DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE LIKELY THE PRIMARY
SEVERE HAZARDS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THANKS TO THE STRONG LLJ, IT COULD BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH BECOMING LIKELY WITH A LOW CHANCE
(UP TO 20%) OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES TUMBLING QUITE QUICKLY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT WILL
STILL BE BREEZY AS WELL, SENDING THE WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S ALONG AND WEST OF THE ACF BASIN, AND WE MAY LIKELY NEED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND BEYOND. HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. CHANCES FOR A HARD
FREEZE ARE HIGH (70-100%) BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW
20S FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. HOWEVER,
EVERYONE WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND/OR EXTREME COLD WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. VERY LITTLE MODERATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST
EACH NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT ECP AND DHN THIS MORNING, WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING NEAR VLD WITH MVFR VSBYS. IT APPEARS THE WINDOW FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS CLOSING AS MORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. A FEW
LIGHT SHRA HAVE BEEN STREAMING IN FROM ECP TO DHN, AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT ECP, TLH, AND VLD, THOUGH MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT DHN AND
ABY. AFTER 00Z, CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN AT ECP AND VLD DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY. CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS,
MAINLY WEST OF APALACHICOLA. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH CHANCES FOR ADVISORY
CONDITIONS BECOMING MEDIUM TO HIGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME STRONG, WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT, A STRONG SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH A
MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS, MAINLY WEST OF
APALACHICOLA. WINDS EASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THEY CLOCK
AROUND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
A FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A WETTING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. GIVEN ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TRANSPORT WINDS, DISPERSIONS WILL
BE POOR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DISPERSIONS IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS
TRANSPORT STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE EAST TO 10-15 MPH, THOUGH MIXING
HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW THANKS TO CLOUDY SKIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON
SUNDAY, TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
20 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE. OTHERWISE, DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD TO
HIGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 74 54 66 56 / 10 10 10 10
PANAMA CITY 70 53 69 60 / 30 20 10 30
DOTHAN 67 49 61 55 / 40 10 20 50
ALBANY 68 48 56 50 / 30 10 20 40
VALDOSTA 74 51 62 52 / 10 10 20 10
CROSS CITY 78 54 73 58 / 0 10 10 0
APALACHICOLA 67 55 65 59 / 10 10 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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