288
FXUS62 KTAE 240519
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1219 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
- THERE IS MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR A HARD FREEZE ARE HIGH (>80%) MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF
MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS (10-30%) SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AND INCREASES TO MEDIUM TO HIGH (60 TO 90%) SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (40 TO
60%) OF GALE FORCE GUSTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK, UPDATES DON'T APPEAR NECESSARY
THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
A FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR, MOST OF IT
ISN'T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE'S STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID, SOME OF THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS ARE
REACHING THE GROUND, SO A QUICK SHOWER OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AS A STRONG 1040+MB HIGH SLIDES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO A PRIME COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD)
POSITION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS SENDS COLD AIR DOWN THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APALACHIANS AND COULD MOSEY ALL THE WAY INTO OUR
NORTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN THIS FORECASTER'S
EXPERIENCE, THE 3KM NAM TYPICALLY HANDLES THE SHALLOW COLD FROM CAD
FAIRLY WELL AND IS INDICATING SOME COLDER (BUT WELL ABOVE FREEZING!)
TEMPERATURES THAN THE NBM. AS A RESULT, HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AND COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR OUR NORTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES.
ADMITTEDLY, IT MAY NOT BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OR COOL ENOUGH. AGAIN,
NOTHING GETS OUR AREA REMOTELY TO FREEZING DURING THIS WINDOW, BUT
THINGS COULD TREND A LITTLE BIT COLDER, AT LEAST FOR AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER OVER TO DOTHAN. THESE
AREAS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS (MAYBE
COLDER...) AND LOWER-MIDDLE 40S FOR LOWS.
OTHERWISE, THOSE OUTSIDE OF THE CAD INFLUENCE WILL BASK IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70S SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR LOWS.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
WEAKENS AND PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. SO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE IN
THE FORECAST SATURDAY EVENING FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
FLINT/APALACHICOLA RIVERS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
TL;DR: A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE, MOVES WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THEN
COLD, VERY COLD, NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL MORNINGS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND
HEADS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS
PUTS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE, ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT.
MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND LINGERS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL MORNINGS FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING WITH A FEW MORNINGS
AT OR BELOW 25 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
REMAIN A SOLID 10 TO 20 DEGREES, OR MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S, BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
A DEEPER LOOK AT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOWS A STRENGTHENING 45 TO 55
KNOT 850MB JET OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH
THE AREA BEING IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE H5 JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE'LL HAVE PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 50 TO 60 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 900-
850MB THAT SLOWLY ERODES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO HOW QUICKLY THE CAP CAN ERODE, WHICH WILL ALLOW
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE WHEN IT FINALLY DOES. THAT SAID, THERE IS A
FEW HOUR WINDOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OF ENOUGH OF AN OVERLAP OF
THE INGREDIENTS TO LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1
OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER THING TO MENTION IS HOW GUSTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS LOOKING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A 40-50 KNOT JET AT 925 MB IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH
MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW (LESS THAN 20%) CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, OR 40+ MPH GUSTS, ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT LEAST IT'LL BE
A WARM WIND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO MIDDLE 70S.
WINTER'S GRIP, AFTER RELENTING A BIT THE PAST FEW DAYS, TIGHTENS
EVEN MORE NEXT WEEK. A BROAD H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY COMBINED WITH A STRONG 1040+MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED COLD. WIDESPREAD
UPPER 10S TO LOWER 20S ARE FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION
OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES, OR FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES, BETWEEN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. IN OTHER WORDS, COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES AND/OR EXTREME COLD WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
NEEDED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH FREEZE WARNINGS FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR
AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW 25 DEGREES. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL TO END THE MONTH OF JANUARY.
LOOKING A LITTLE AHEAD, THE PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND IS INTERESTING...
THE COLD WILL ALREADY BE AROUND; THERE'S A DEEP H5 TROUGH WITH AN H5
LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US; AND AN
ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. THAT'S ALL WE HAVE TO SAY ABOUT THAT...
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
MVFR CIGS PREVAIL AT NEARLY ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT TLH. GENERALLY
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR AT TIMES. CIGS WILL
STRUGGLE TO LIFT, ESPECIALLY AT DHN, ABY, AND VLD, AND IT'S LIKELY
THESE SITES REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECP AND TLH MAY HAVE
SOME RESPITE IN THE CIGS THIS MORNING BEFORE MVFR CIGS RETURN LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 7-10 KT ARE
EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL KEEP
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS CAUTIONARY
LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP WITH A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS, A FEW STRONG. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A MEDIUM
(40-60%) CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY. WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A LOW, LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT, CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE DISTRICTS BEFORE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ROLLS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT
WINDS INCREASE EVEN MORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION; A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THERE IS A LOW, LESS THAN
20 PERCENT, CHANCE OF NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AND COLDER
CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA AND SOUTH- CENTRAL GEORGIA ZONES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANY RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT. THAT SAID, BRIEF
PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE
FLOODING IF IT FALLS IN MORE URBAN AREAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 68 58 73 38 / 10 10 70 90
PANAMA CITY 69 59 73 33 / 10 30 80 80
DOTHAN 63 55 73 30 / 10 50 90 70
ALBANY 56 46 72 33 / 10 30 80 90
VALDOSTA 64 53 76 40 / 10 10 50 90
CROSS CITY 74 56 77 48 / 10 0 20 90
APALACHICOLA 65 58 70 36 / 10 10 60 90
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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