930
FXUS62 KTAE 241431
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
931 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
- THERE IS MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH
AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OUTSIDE OF STORMS,
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-60%) OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR A HARD FREEZE ARE HIGH (>80%) MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCES OF HARD FREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40 TO 60%) OF GALE FORCE GUSTS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS BUT THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST
TODAY. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BUILD AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS
WILL RESULT IN SOME COLD AIR DAMMING SEEPING INTO OUR NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE A LOT OF MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH REGARDING TEMPERATURES, IN THAT, MOST OFTEN, THEY'RE
TOO WARM. FOR TODAY'S HIGHS, I LEANED HEAVILY ON HREF, WHICH IS A
GOOD 5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN NBM AT TIMES TODAY. IN FACT, WITH THE
WEDGE ARRIVING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THE HIGHS ALONG
AND NORTH OF US 82 MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING BEFORE FALLING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S NORTH OF US 82 TO LOW 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. MEANWHILE,
RAIN CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW (AROUND 10 PERCENT).
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE DICTATED BY THE WEDGE IN OUR
NORTHEASTERN AREAS, RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NEAR FITZGERALD TO
NEAR 60 ALONG THE EMERALD COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE WIREGRASS, BUT STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL IMPACTS TO DISCUSS HERE IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION, INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER, GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS,
AND PROLONGED DANGEROUS COLD.
FIRST, THE SEVERE ASPECT. THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG
LLJ WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
925 MB WINDS FROM THE HREF MEAN ARE AROUND 40-50 KT WITH 850 MB
WINDS AROUND 45-55 KT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 40-50 KT,
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY REMAINS THE
MAIN QUESTION. THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY OFF TO THE WEST AS
STORMS MOVE IN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE FLOW COMING OVER THE COLD WATERS OF APALACHEE BAY, INSTABILITY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GA AND THE FL BIG BEND IS MORE QUESTIONABLE,
ESPECIALLY AS A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING.
IF STORMS CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE ENVIRONMENT, THEN SOME SEVERE
STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR OUR
ENTIRE AREA. THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. THE SEVERE THREAT ENDS DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS STORMS WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
NEXT, THE NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LLJ IN
PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OPPORTUNITY
TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE WINDS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON. THERE IS NOW A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-60
PERCENT) OF GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT
AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AN UPWARD TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES, A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES.
NOW, FOR THE PROLONGED COLD. TEMPERATURES TURN SHARPLY COLDER
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS
WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING MONDAY MORNING WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS. WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING IN THESE
AREAS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. IT'S
STILL A LITTLE EARLY, BUT COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR MONDAY MORNING IN THESE AREAS. MONDAY WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR 40 IN THE WIREGRASS TO NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE
(70-100 PERCENT) MONDAY NIGHT FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. MONDAY NIGHT'S
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. COMBINED WITH WIND,
WIND CHILLS COULD BE DANGEROUSLY COLD WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE WIND SUBSIDES MOVING FORWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES
OF HARD FREEZES EACH NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
PROLONGED COLD COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL STRESS ON UNPROTECTED
PERSONS AND ON EXPOSED PLUMBING, ESPECIALLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S.
UNCERTAINTY GROWS IMMENSELY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH HIGH MODEL INCONSISTENCY. HOWEVER, ONE THING WE HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
IFR TO MVFR CIGS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A FEW
LIGHT SHRA HAVE BEEN PASSING NEAR TLH AND ECP THIS MORNING, AND
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO MVFR OR LOW- END VFR THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ABY AND VLD WHERE MVFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ALL
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, CIGS DROP BACK TO IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS. SOME
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT VLD AND TLH LATE IN THE PERIOD. SHRA BEGIN
APPROACHING DHN AND ABY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF WATERS WEST
OF APALACHICOLA AS WELL AS ST. ANDREWS BAY BEGINNING SUNDAY
MORNING. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES, GALE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR THE WESTERN
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ALSO LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
EASTERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
BREEZES OVER THE WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
OVER THE GULF WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA. WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AS THE
STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND
WATERSPOUTS. WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS.
GALE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY. STRONG NORTHERLY
BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING BY TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
EASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
YIELD GENERALLY FAIR DISPERSIONS TODAY. TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO 25-35 MPH ON SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, AND SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS, AS WELL AS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS, DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD TO HIGH, HIGHEST OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
COLDER, DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AT 20-30 MPH MONDAY WITH GOOD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS, PARTICULARLY OVER
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
ABOUT HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE BIG BEND. THE BIG BEND INTO THE
VALDOSTA METRO WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAIN.
LOCALIZED HIGH-END TOTALS (10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE) IN THE
WIREGRASS COULD REACH 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN ANY HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 68 57 73 38 / 10 10 50 90
PANAMA CITY 70 59 73 34 / 10 20 70 90
DOTHAN 61 54 74 29 / 10 40 90 80
ALBANY 58 48 73 34 / 10 30 70 90
VALDOSTA 64 51 76 42 / 10 10 30 100
CROSS CITY 74 57 76 51 / 0 0 10 90
APALACHICOLA 64 59 71 38 / 10 10 50 90
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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