980
FXUS62 KTAE 250043
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
743 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 739 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
- THERE IS SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, BIG BEND, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND A TORNADO
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AHEAD OF THE STORMS, WIND GUSTS NEAR
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR A HARD FREEZE ARE HIGH (>80%) MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCES OF HARD FREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40 TO 60%) OF GALE FORCE GUSTS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50%) OF A FEW SHOWERS
ENCROACHING ON OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM, BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTION TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG
THE PANHANDLE COAST.
FOR SUNDAY, SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE. A STATIONARY FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AN IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 40-50 KT, WHICH IS
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY THAT RETURNS NORTHWARD. AT THIS TIME, THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A GREATER SEVERE
STORM RISK ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA COMPARED TO THE
EASTERN HALF. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. THE SEVERE THREAT ENDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS STORMS WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM
WINDS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 40
MPH AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
BEHIND THE FRONT, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING MONDAY MORNING WEST
OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS. WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING
IN THESE AREAS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY MORNING IN
THESE AREAS. MONDAY WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR
40 IN THE WIREGRASS TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE (70-100 PERCENT) MONDAY NIGHT FOR
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. MONDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO MID 20S. COMBINED WITH WIND, WIND CHILLS COULD BE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE
THE WIND SUBSIDES MOVING FORWARD THROUGH THE WEEK, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF HARD FREEZES EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PROLONGED COLD COULD CAUSE
ADDITIONAL STRESS ON UNPROTECTED PERSONS AND ON EXPOSED PLUMBING,
ESPECIALLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEGINNING AROUND 03-05Z. DURING THIS PERIOD, THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFFECTING THE DHN TERMINAL, AS NOTED WITH A
PROB30 GROUP. AROUND SUNRISE, ALL TERMINALS WILL BE EXPERIENCING
IFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG AFFECTING VLD AND TLH TERMINALS. OUR
WESTERN TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 18Z WITH A SHARP CHANGE
IN WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NON- THUNDERSTORM
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 35KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN ON
SUNDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE WITH
STRONG WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS. WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING BY TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
AND SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OUTSIDE OF STORMS,
DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD TO HIGH, HIGHEST OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
COLDER, DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AT 20-30 MPH MONDAY WITH GOOD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 119 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE BIG BEND. THE BIG BEND INTO THE
VALDOSTA METRO WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAIN.
LOCALIZED HIGH-END TOTALS (10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE) IN THE
WIREGRASS COULD REACH 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN ANY HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 57 74 37 48 / 0 50 90 0
PANAMA CITY 59 74 32 47 / 10 70 90 0
DOTHAN 56 75 29 42 / 30 90 80 0
ALBANY 51 75 32 45 / 20 70 90 0
VALDOSTA 52 77 39 50 / 10 30 100 10
CROSS CITY 56 78 48 63 / 0 10 90 10
APALACHICOLA 58 70 35 49 / 10 40 90 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM CST SUNDAY FOR FLZ007>013-108-
112.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ120>126-
142>145-155-156.
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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