661
FXUS62 KTAE 251454
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
954 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 953 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
- THERE IS SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS
TO RECEIVE WARNINGS TODAY.
- GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF 30-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS, AND USE CAUTION IF DRIVING HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF
THE WEEK. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL BE
COMMON. PROTECT THE 4 PS DURING THIS PROLONGED, DANGEROUS COLD
EVENT.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BEGIN THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50%) OF GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD ALTER
PLANS TO AVOID HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ALL AREA BEACHES
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. PLEASE STAY OUT OF THE SURF AND HEED
ANY POSTED BEACH FLAGS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 953 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
A FEW CHANGES OF NOTE FOR TODAY'S FORECAST:
1) RAIN CHANCES - BASED ON THE LATEST 12Z HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ONGOING RADAR RETURNS FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. AXIS OF
HIGHEST POP WAS ALSO EXTENDED MORE EASTWARD OF THE ACF BASIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
2) WX GRIDS - FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD T+ SO THAT THE POINT- AND-
CLICK FORECAST SAYS "POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS" MAINLY FOR SE
AL, THE FL PANHANDLE, AND INTO THE FLINT RIVER VALLEY IN THE 18-22Z
TIME FRAME. PATCHY FOG (LOCALLY DENSE) WAS ALSO TWEAKED BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS UNTIL LATE MORNING.
3) HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT - BLENDED IN THE HRRR/RAP FOR THE
NEXT 3 HRS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ROBUST WEDGE AIDING IN A SHARP
THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM NE (COOLER/DRIER) TO SW (WARMER/MORE
MOIST).
LATE-MORNING SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WITH A POTENT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AMIDST A
WELL-DEFINED WARM SECTOR. LARGE SWATHS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO MORE
OF A SQUALL LINE AS IT ENCROACHES ON SE AL AND THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 18Z. HI-RES MODELS BRING A PLUME OF
INSTABILITY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG FROM THE GULF INTO AROUND THE TRI-
STATE BORDER JUST AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE, SO THAT IS WHERE THE
MOST FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS ARE POISED TO OVERLAP FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE ANY WARNINGS
TODAY. FUTURE CONVECTIVE WATCHES ARE ON THE TABLE DEPENDING ON HOW
STORMS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATE IN
THE EVENING AS IT APPROACHES THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND SUWANNEE
VALLEY. THE INGREDIENTS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
A STRONG LLJ OF 40-55 KT WILL SUPPORT STORMS, WITH BULK SHEAR
AROUND 50 KT. AHEAD OF THE STORMS, HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGE AND
CURVED, SUPPORTING ROTATING STORMS IF THEY CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY, SOME EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITHIN THE LINE ITSELF. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS
INSTABILITY AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, WHICH MAY INHIBIT SOME DAYTIME HEATING POTENTIAL. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FARTHER TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST IN OUR AREA
WHERE THE WEDGE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE AND FLOW OFF APALACHEE BAY
IN THE AFTERNOON MAY LOCALLY REDUCE INSTABILITY IN THE BIG BEND.
REGARDLESS, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES. BEHIND THE LINE OF
STORMS, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
THE STORMS END.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE STRONG LLJ MENTIONED ABOVE WILL YIELD SOME
WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IF WE GET BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WIND
GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH WILL BE COMMON, AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FROM PANAMA CITY TO TIFTON NORTHWESTWARD.
THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER
EXIST.
A SHARP TURN IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES DROP RATHER QUICKLY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN OUR ALABAMA
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. WIND CHILLS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA FOR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN US, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ALL THIS WEEK. HIGHS EACH DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. WINDS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY MONDAY, IT WILL LIKELY
FEEL LIKE THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. MONDAY NIGHT'S WIND CHILLS
WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THIS EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 9 AND
18 ACROSS THE AREA. EXTREME COLD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM
ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. EVERYONE, INCLUDING COASTAL LOCATIONS, HAS A HIGH CHANCE
OF A HARD FREEZE (TEMPERATURES 25F OR LOWER) BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A HARD FREEZE
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. CHANCES OF A HARD FREEZE REMAIN MEDIUM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK FOR INLAND AREAS.
EVERYONE SHOULD PROTECT THE 4 PS THIS WEEK: PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS,
PIPES. GIVEN THIS IS A PROLONGED COLD EVENT, THERE MAY BE EXTRA
STRESS ON THOSE THAT DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO HEAT AND ALSO ON
EXPOSED PLUMBING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, WHICH JUST
KNOCKS OUR TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AGAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE LATE WEEK FORECAST REGARDING ANY SYSTEMS NEARBY OR PRECIP
CHANCES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE PART OF THE FORECAST WE HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE
IN IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY LATE
JANUARY/EARLY FEBRUARY STANDARDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
IFR/LIFR CIGS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG AS WELL REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR/MVFR. LIGHT SHRA HAS BEEN
STREAMING INTO ECP AND DHN THIS MORNING AS WELL. CIGS WILL RISE
TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING AT ALL SITES WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 15-25 KT AND GUSTS OF 30-35 KT. TSRA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG GUSTS
OF AROUND 40 KT. BEHIND TSRA, CIGS WILL DROP BACK TO IFR/LIFR FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT SHRA CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
WINDS BECOME NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AS WELL THROUGH THE NIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 953 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
PATCHY DENSE SEA FOG IS APPARENT FOR PARTS OF APALACHEE BAY THIS
MORNING BASED ON OBSERVATIONS, SATELLITE, AND COASTAL WEB CAMS. AS A
RESULT, A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED - IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM
EST. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL PREMATURE IMPROVEMENT.
CWF SYNOPSIS: WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY DENSE FOG
PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON IN APALACHEE BAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS. WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING BY TUESDAY. WINDS FRESHEN AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
TODAY TO 25-35 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, AND SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD TO HIGH, HIGHEST OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH COLDER, DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AT 20-30 MPH MONDAY WITH GOOD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. FAIR DISPERSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WINDS LIGHTEN. HOWEVER, RH VALUES WILL BE
CRITICALLY LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 141 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM AN INCH ACROSS THE WIREGRASS TO
UNDER A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. LOCALIZED
REASONABLE HIGH-END TOTALS (90TH PERCENTILE) MAY REACH 2 INCHES UP
IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. WHILE WELCOMED RAIN, THIS WON'T BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS OR PROVIDE MUCH DROUGHT RELIEF.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE
OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 38 49 24 / 70 80 0 0
PANAMA CITY 72 34 48 25 / 90 80 0 0
DOTHAN 72 29 43 20 / 90 70 0 0
ALBANY 71 33 46 20 / 90 80 0 0
VALDOSTA 74 41 50 22 / 60 80 10 0
CROSS CITY 76 53 59 25 / 20 70 10 0
APALACHICOLA 70 40 50 26 / 60 70 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ007>013-016-108-112-326.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
FLZ007>013-108-112.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ007>017-027-108-112-114-115-127-326-426.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ120>129-142>146-
155>157.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ120>124-142-143-155.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ120>126-142>145-155>157.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ065>069.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ730-755-
765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ751-752-770-
772.
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...YOUNG/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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