329
FXUS62 KTAE 251834
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
134 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
- TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 7PM EST/ 6PM CST FOR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
- THERE IS SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS
TO RECEIVE WARNINGS TODAY.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF
THE WEEK. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL BE
COMMON. PROTECT THE 4 PS DURING THIS PROLONGED, DANGEROUS COLD
EVENT.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE (30-50%) OF GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD ALTER PLANS TO AVOID
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THESE
STORMS CAN BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THE LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO BE 40-55KTS WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR
AROUND 50KTS. DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION, GIVEN THE CURVED HODOGRAPHS THAT WE'RE
SEEING. ADDITIONALLY, THE MAIN LINE MAY CONTAIN QLCS TORNADOES.
THE SPC HAS PLACED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION, EXCLUDING THE EXTREME SE BIG BEND, FOR SEVERE
STORMS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A TORNADO WATCH IN
EFFECT THROUGH 7PM EST FOR SE ALABAMA, MUCH OF SW GEORGIA AND THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AGAIN, THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR TODAY WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES. BEHIND
THE LINE OF STORMS, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE STORMS END.
DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE STRONG LLJ, IT
WILL BE WINDY, EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS OF
30-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
6PM EST/ 5PM CST FROM PANAMA CITY TO TIFTON NORTHWESTWARD. THIS IS
WHERE THE LIKELIHOOD OF EXPERIENCING GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH IS
GREATEST.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS, THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH A SHARP CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START FALLING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MONDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 20S
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST BIG
BEND AS THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE COMPLETED ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK. WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA FOR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE BUT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WHICH WILL ONLY BE BEGINNING THE EFFECTS OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THE RUSH OF COLD AIR. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20- 25 MPH, WHICH WILL KEEP THE WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO 50S FOR MONDAY'S HIGH.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S AS
ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. EXTREME COLD WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
AS WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILLS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 9 TO 19 ACROSS THE CWA. A (HARD) FREEZE
WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
FOR THE LONG TERM, WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S FOR SE
ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND SE FL BIG BEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FRIGID
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S EACH NIGHT. FURTHER (HARD) FREEZE
WATCHES AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND
REGIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
EVERYONE SHOULD PROTECT THE 4 PS THIS WEEK: PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS,
PIPES. GIVEN THIS IS A PROLONGED COLD EVENT, THERE MAY BE EXTRA
STRESS ON THOSE THAT DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO HEAT AND ALSO ON
EXPOSED PLUMBING.
LATER IN THE WEEK, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT COULD BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AFTER.
THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT AS OF YET, SO THERE IS A HIGH
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POSSIBLE IMPACTS. WE WILL MONITOR
AS MODELS BECOME MORE CONCISE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
A VERY MESSY SET OF TAFS FOR THIS CYCLE. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS
WITH EMBEDDED FOG/MIST IS ONGOING ACROSS MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SQUALL AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.
OVERALL, EXPECT POOR FLT CONDS FROM REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS, GUSTY
WINDS, AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE INVOF
ECP/DHN/ABY WHERE TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN PLACE FOR +TSRA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE NW FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING DOWN TO IFR LEVELS OR PERHAPS LOWER. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TMRW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS A STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON IN APALACHEE BAY. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS. WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS FRESHEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE MARINE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
MODERATE TO HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10 IN THE FL PANHANDLE, THEN ALONG THE I-10/I-75
CORRIDOR PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SQUALL LINE WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND POTENTIALLY A FEW TORNADOES. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES
IN ITS WAKE. TRANSPORT WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE ELEVATED AROUND
20-30 MPH WITH GOOD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. MINRHS
WILL BE IN THE 30S- 40S PERCENT FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE
COLD BUT, WINDS WILL LESSEN. HOWEVER, MINRHS WILL BE CRITICALLY
LOW FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, AND LOW 30S INTO THE UPPER 20S
ELSEWHERE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM AN INCH ACROSS THE WIREGRASS TO
UNDER A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. LOCALIZED
REASONABLE HIGH-END TOTALS (90TH PERCENTILE) MAY REACH 2 INCHES UP
IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. WHILE WELCOMED RAIN, THIS WON'T BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS OR PROVIDE MUCH DROUGHT RELIEF.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE
OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 37 49 24 48 / 80 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 32 48 25 48 / 80 0 0 0
DOTHAN 29 43 20 45 / 70 0 0 0
ALBANY 32 45 19 45 / 90 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 39 50 21 47 / 90 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 48 62 25 51 / 80 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 37 49 27 47 / 70 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ007>013-016-108-112-326.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
FLZ007>013-108-112.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ007>017-027-108-112-114-115-127-326-426.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ120>129-142>146-
155>157.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ120>124-142-143-155.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ120>126-142>145-155>157.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ065>069.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ730-755-
765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ751-752-770-
772.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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