745
FXUS62 KTAE 260056
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
756 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 756 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF
THE WEEK. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL BE
COMMON. PROTECT THE 4 PS DURING THIS PROLONGED, DANGEROUS COLD
EVENT.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH A SHARP CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
START FALLING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 20S FROM THE NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 50S IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AS THE FRONT WILL
NOT HAVE COMPLETED ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK.
WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE BUT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WHICH WILL ONLY BE BEGINNING THE EFFECTS OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THE RUSH OF COLD AIR. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20- 25 MPH, WHICH WILL KEEP THE WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO 50S FOR MONDAY'S HIGH.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S AS
ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. EXTREME COLD WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
AS WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILLS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 9 TO 19 ACROSS THE CWA. A (HARD) FREEZE
WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
FOR THE LONG TERM, WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S FOR SE
ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND SE FL BIG BEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FRIGID
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S EACH NIGHT. FURTHER (HARD) FREEZE
WATCHES AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND
REGIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
EVERYONE SHOULD PROTECT THE 4 PS THIS WEEK: PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS,
PIPES. GIVEN THIS IS A PROLONGED COLD EVENT, THERE MAY BE EXTRA
STRESS ON THOSE THAT DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO HEAT AND ALSO ON
EXPOSED PLUMBING.
LATER IN THE WEEK, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT COULD BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AFTER.
THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT AS OF YET, SO THERE IS A HIGH
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POSSIBLE IMPACTS. WE WILL MONITOR
AS MODELS BECOME MORE CONCISE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE MAIN LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE PAST VLD
BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z. ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE LINGERING AND
TRAILING SHOWERS AND RAIN FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. THE RAIN
WILL END DURING THE NIGHT, AND THEN THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
PASS, ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. POST-
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL LINGER WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY, WITH
CLEAR SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 756 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, MODERATE SOUTHERLIES AND FOG WILL PREVAIL.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, A QUICK TURN TO STRONG NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL OCCUR. STRONG NORTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS
FRESHEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE MARINE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
MODERATE TO HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10 IN THE FL PANHANDLE, THEN ALONG THE I-10/I-75
CORRIDOR PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SQUALL LINE WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND POTENTIALLY A FEW TORNADOES. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES
IN ITS WAKE. TRANSPORT WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE ELEVATED AROUND
20-30 MPH WITH GOOD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. MINRHS
WILL BE IN THE 30S- 40S PERCENT FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE
COLD BUT, WINDS WILL LESSEN. HOWEVER, MINRHS WILL BE CRITICALLY
LOW FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, AND LOW 30S INTO THE UPPER 20S
ELSEWHERE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 756 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 37 49 24 48 / 70 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 32 48 25 48 / 70 0 0 0
DOTHAN 29 43 20 45 / 100 0 0 0
ALBANY 32 45 19 45 / 100 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 39 50 21 47 / 90 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 48 62 25 51 / 70 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 37 49 27 47 / 70 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
FLZ007>013-108-112.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ007>017-027-108-112-114-115-127-326-426.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ120>124-142-143-155.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ120>126-142>145-155>157.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ751-752-770-
772.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ765.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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