656
FXUS62 KTAE 260652
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
152 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
- DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS AREA
WIDE OF 9 TO 20. PEOPLE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE WARMTH MAY BE
AT RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE EACH NIGHT
THIS WEEK EXCEPT THURSDAY NIGHT. PROTECT THE 4 PS: PEOPLE, PETS,
PLANTS, AND PIPES. THIS PROLONGED COLD MAY CAUSE EXTRA STRAIN ON
UNPROTECTED PEOPLE AND EXPOSED PLUMBING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUING. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AT 1 AM ET, TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 72 AT CROSS
CITY TO 39 IN ENTERPRISE. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE FLINT AND
APALACHICOLA RIVERS THIS MORNING SHOULD FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING.
ADD IN THE WIND, AND THE WIND CHILL WILL FEEL LIKE THE MID TEENS
TO LOW 20S IN THE THESE AREAS. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS STILL STANDS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS RATHER GUSTY - UP TO 30 MPH
AT TIMES. COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S, IT WILL FEEL
RATHER BRUTAL THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE. FOR MOST
OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND, IT WILL FEEL LIKE
THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
THE WINDS SUBSIDE SOME TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA. BUT, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME WIND TONIGHT ADVECTING THE
ARCTIC AIR STILL INTO OUR AREA (AND OVERTOP SOME FRESH SNOWPACK
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS). A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE TONIGHT, EVEN DOWN TO COAST. EXPOSED AREAS SUCH AS THE
ST. JOSEPH PENINSULA AND ST. GEORGE ISLAND MAY BE THE ONLY PLACES
TO ESCAPE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S FOR NEARLY EVERYONE. A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD
FREEZE IS IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE.
THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EXTREMELY COLD TONIGHT WITH WIND
CHILLS RANGING FROM 9 IN OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES TO 20 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FORGOTTEN COAST. THIS LEVEL OF COLD IS DANGEROUS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE WARMTH. AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD
WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY EAST OF THERE. AN IMPORTANT NOTE:
WHILE NOT EVERYONE WILL REACH EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA (IN
THIS CASE, WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW 10 IN AL/GA, AT OR BELOW 15 IN
FL), THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS FROM 9 DEGREES TO 13
DEGREES. THE SCREAMING MESSAGE REMAINS THAT THIS LEVEL OF COLD IS
DANGEROUS, AND THIS LONG DURATION COLD TIPS THIS FORECASTER'S
HAND TOWARD LEANING CAUTIOUSLY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WE WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH LIKELY MORE FREEZE WARNINGS AND/OR
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES TO COME FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. THERE REMAINS AT
LEAST A MEDIUM CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE EACH NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL BE
"WARMER" IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THE COLD FRONT STALLS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS AROUND THE EASTERN US TROUGH.
MOST MODELS AGREE ON CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST COAST, SENDING
ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR DOWN TO OUR REGION. CHANCES FOR A HARD
FREEZE INCREASE AGAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BACK TO MEDIUM TO
HIGH ACCORDING TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. SIMILARLY, THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A MEDIUM CHANCE OF US REACHING EXTREME
COLD WARNING CRITERIA AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS PROLONGED COLD WITH NOT MUCH WARMTH IN THE FORECAST CAN
CERTAINLY PUT A STRAIN ON UNPROTECTED AND/OR VULNERABLE
POPULATIONS AND ON EXPOSED PLUMBING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
MVFR TO IFR CIGS CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH
12Z. AFTER 12Z, CIGS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RISE WITH VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 20-25 KT OUT OF THE NW WILL BE COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER
00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES IN ITS WAKE. SOME GUSTS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT,
BUT CHANCES OF GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LOW (10%). WINDS SUBSIDE
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES
THROUGH MID-WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3,000-3,500 FEET. THIS WILL LEAD
TO GOOD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE AREA, HIGHEST IN THE BIG
BEND. TRANSPORT WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH. GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. RH VALUES TUESDAY WILL BE AT OR BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS AREA-WIDE, AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL RAIN IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
AND THERE REMAIN NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 47 24 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 47 25 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 43 20 45 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 45 19 45 25 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 48 22 48 25 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 59 24 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 49 26 48 31 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ007>013-
108-112.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 11
AM EST /10 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR FLZ007>014-016-017-108-112-
114-326.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
EST /10 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-
114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR FLZ015-018-019-027>029-034-115-118-127-128-134-
426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
GAZ120>124-142-143-155.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR GAZ120>126-142>145-155>157.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR GAZ127>131-146>148-158>161.
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ065>069.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ735.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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