311
FXUS62 KTAE 261841
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
141 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
- DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE 7 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 15
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. PEOPLE WITHOUT ACCESS
TO ADEQUATE WARMTH WILL BE AT RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PROTECT THE 4 PS: PEOPLE, PETS,
PLANTS, AND PIPES. THIS PROLONGED COLD MAY CAUSE EXTRA STRAIN ON
UNPROTECTED PEOPLE AND EXPOSED PLUMBING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.
- ANOTHER INTENSE ARCTIC BLAST POTENTIALLY ARRIVES BY SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1041 MB HIGH OVER THE TX/OK
BORDER. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE EXISTING
SNOW/ICE PACK QUITE WELL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE WIND FLOW CONTINUES OVER THIS
SNOW/ICE PACK AND ALONG WITH THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD
TO ESPECIALLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE REGION, WINDS WILL NEVER BE
ABLE TO GO CALM. NORMALLY, WIND WOULD PREVENT FROM TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING CONSIDERABLY, HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED STRONG COLD
ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE UPPER TEENS, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. WITH THE WIND, IT WILL FEEL MUCH
COOLER WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. GIVEN THAT THE GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED COLDER, EXPANDED THE EXTREME COLD WARNING TO COVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL SLACK OFF AND THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
LESSEN. HOWEVER, THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A
CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CRASH INTO THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY BE BRINGING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH
WILL ACTUALLY BE HELPFUL IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING
EVEN COOLER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY NIGHT SINCE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER, STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO, THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE AIRMASS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S BY THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL DROPPING WELL BELOW
FREEZING WITH HARD FREEZES LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY, CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL GREATLY AMPLIFY WHILE DIGGING TOWARD
THE GULF COAST STATES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO MUCH SO THAT IT IS
LIKELY TO SUPPRESS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO THE SOUTH,
KEEPING IT OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE NET EFFECT OF THIS
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR LIKELY EVEN COLDER
THAN WHAT WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THAT ON SATURDAY SOME PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH THE FREEZING MARK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TO SAY NOTHING OF THE BRUTALLY
COLD WIND CHILLS. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THIS WEEKEND COULD BE
PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL FROM A COLD WEATHER PERSPECTIVE GIVEN THAT
HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING AND LOW TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD EASILY DROP INTO THE MID TEENS (OR LOWER).
THE CHILLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HARD FREEZES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ANY
AIRMASS MODIFICATION COMMENCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS OVER TLH AND VLD. ALL TERMINALS WILL CLEAR BY MID AFTERNOON
AND STAY SKC THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. FOLLOWING THIS MORNING'S
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED OUT OF THE NNW ACROSS THE
REGION AT AROUND 12-17KTS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KTS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN AT AROUND 7-9KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INTO THE
ADVISORY RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE GUSTS WELL OFFSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAVE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK.
HOWEVER, OTHER NECESSARY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MINIMUM
RH VALUES ONLY MODERATING SLIGHTLY EACH AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PUNCH
OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY BE THE DRIEST AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
RAINFALL FROM THE RECENT SYSTEM WAS AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WITH MOST OTHER AREAS STAYING IN THE 0.5-1.5
INCH RANGE. WHILE WELCOME, THESE AMOUNTS WILL DO LITTLE TO
ALLEVIATE THE LONG TERM DROUGHT. SOME BRIEF INCREASE IN THE
INCREDIBLY LOW STREAMFLOWS WILL OCCUR OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS, BUT
OVERALL, THIS EVENT IS UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE THE DROUGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THUS
THERE ARE NO FLOOD CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 21 49 26 53 / 0 0 0 10
PANAMA CITY 25 49 31 53 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 19 46 27 50 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 20 46 25 50 / 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 21 48 26 52 / 0 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 23 51 24 56 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 25 48 31 51 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 11
AM EST /10 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-
112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
EST /10 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-
114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
GMZ730-735-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM....GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
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