911
FXUS62 KTAE 271457
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
957 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 957 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS. PROTECT THE 4 PS: PEOPLE,
PETS, PLANTS, AND PIPES. THIS PROLONGED COLD MAY CAUSE EXTRA
STRAIN ON UNPROTECTED PEOPLE AND EXPOSED PLUMBING.
- ANOTHER INTENSE ARCTIC BLAST POTENTIALLY ARRIVES BY SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 957 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, LEADING TO LESS
BREEZY WEATHER TODAY. IT WILL STILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
US TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL IMPACT OUR LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST,
INHIBITING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. THE MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CLEAR SKIES AND IS THEREFORE MUCH COLDER. HOWEVER, WITH
THE CLOUD COVER, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES "WARMER" WITH MID
20S TO LOW 30S. BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 25F TONIGHT, HAVE OPTED NOT TO HOIST A
FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE
CHANCES IN INLAND SPOTS FOR A HARD FREEZE ARE STILL MEDIUM, THEY
HAVE DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, IF CLOUD COVER IS LESS
THAN FORECAST OR IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE, TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ON TO OUR SOUTHEAST TOMORROW WITH CLEARING
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET
US UP FOR A MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR A HARD FREEZE INCREASE A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THIS SETUP.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER
EASTERN US TROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE FIRST OF WHICH SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE NEXT, STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING,
WHICH WILL HELP SPUR CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
WHERE EXACTLY THIS DEVELOPS AND HOW STRONG HAS IMPLICATIONS ON OUR
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS (20%) IN OUR NORTHEASTERNMOST
COUNTIES. THIS AREA WOULD BE CLOSEST TO ANY TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND HAVE BETTER ACCESS TO ANY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE. ELSEWHERE, THE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND WILL
QUICKLY LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WHAT WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THOUGH REMAINS ANOTHER ROUND OF
EXTREME COLD. MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF A 1044 MB HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPRESSIVELY COLD WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF A
HARD FREEZE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. TO HAVE SUCH HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR A HIGH-IMPACT COLD 5-7 DAYS OUT IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE ALREADY MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES
OF WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA, WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE ANOTHER ROUND OF EXTREME COLD
WATCHES/WARNINGS.
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WE HEAD TOWARD AN
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HIGH-IMPACT COLD EVENT THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NW WINDS AROUND
5-10 KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE CLOCKING AROUND OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
CRITICALLY LOW RH IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS RH
FALLS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 3,000
FEET. THIS WILL YIELD FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS. HUMIDITY CREEPS
UPWARD WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS CONTINUING AROUND 10-15 MPH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
THURSDAY, LEADING TO POOR DISPERSIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THUS, NO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 49 29 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 49 32 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 46 27 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 46 26 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 48 24 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 52 25 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 48 32 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR FLZ114.
GA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
AL...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page