054
FXUS62 KTAE 272338
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
638 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, BIG BEND, AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
PROTECT THE 4 PS: PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND PIPES. THIS
PROLONGED COLD MAY CAUSE EXTRA STRAIN ON UNPROTECTED PEOPLE AND
EXPOSED PLUMBING.
- ANOTHER INTENSE ARCTIC BLAST POTENTIALLY ARRIVES BY SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR WELL INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE CIRRUS CANOPY CURRENTLY ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS, RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO REACH 25F OR LOWER ACROSS
THE NORMALLY COOLER FLORIDA PANHANDLE, BIG BEND, AND FAR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA LOCATIONS BEFORE THE HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THUS, WE'VE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE
FOR THOSE AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
MORE COLD NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO EVENINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY
AND NO SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF WARM AIR IS ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
REGION. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE BORDERLINE HARD-FREEZE
CONDITIONS. LOCALIZED AREAS OF 26 OR BELOW ARE LIKELY TONIGHT, BUT
WITH INCOMING CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, AND CURRENT FORECAST LOWS
AROUND 27 IN MOST LOCATIONS, HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A FREEZE WARNING
FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED THIS EVENING IF
CIRRUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FROM THE WEST IS SLOWER AS IT WILL ALLOW
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY ON.
AFTER A COLD START WEDNESDAY, WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS. ANOTHER WEAK AND DRY COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT A SIGNIFICANT SHOT
OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED. IT WILL MOSTLY
REINFORCE THE DRY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
IT'S POSSIBLE WE'LL NEED A FREEZE WARNING BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO DECIDE.
ON THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND WE FINALLY
BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN TO WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
STRONGER COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR WARM
UP, BUT DON'T EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT SEES SOMEWHAT OF A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE BITTERLY
COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE PLAGUED THE DEEP SOUTH FOR
MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF JANUARY. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BRINGS
WITH IT INCREASED CLOUD COVER STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL "ONLY" DROP TO THE LOW-
MID 30S FOR OUR INLAND REGIONS, WITH LOW 40S MORE LIKELY ALONG THE
COAST. THERE IS A STRONG EMPHASIS ON THE WORD "BRIEF", AS THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRINGING WITH IT LIKELY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, BRINGING WITH IT STEADILY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
PARENT H5 TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH, PLUNGING
AN EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH IT. THERE IS A LOW-END
CHANCE (10 TO 20%) OF SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING
WHERE THERE IS AN OVERLAP IN THE INCOMING COLD AIR MASS AND THE
EXITING PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME THIS IS LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR, WITH AREAS TO THE WEST LACKING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AS THE INCOMING COLD AND DRY AIR MASS ARRIVES
EARLIER. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
POTENTIAL AS THERE ARE MANY MOVING (AND SOMETIMES COMPETING)
EFFECTS THAT CAN CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS AS MORE MODEL GUIDANCE
COMES IN. AT THE VERY LEAST, WITH THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
PLUNGING INTO THE AREA THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT IN P-TYPES, WITH ANY
WINTER PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS BEING EITHER ALL SNOW OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW. THE BIGGEST POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WHERE, IF
AT ALL, ANY OVERLAP WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND THE COLD AIR
MASS OCCURS. EVEN IF SNOW DOES FALL, THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS AND ANY IMPACTS FROM SNOW
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ON SATURDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S AS
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COUNTERACT
SOLAR HEATING. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BRINGS A DANGEROUS
COLD SNAP. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS ON SUNDAY MORNING. TO GIVE PERSPECTIVE, THE RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR KTLH ON FEBRUARY 1 IS 20F AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATES A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 17F THAT MORNING. TO MAKE MATTERS
WORSE, ELEVATED WINDS FROM THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TO OUR EAST RESULTS IN POTENTIAL WIND CHILLS IN
THE SINGLE-DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. OUR MARINE AREAS WILL FACE THE
BRUNT OF THIS TIGHTENING PRESSURE-GRADIENT, WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING MARINE WINDS APPROACHING GALE-FORCE, MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
SHOULD THESE FORECASTS HOLD, EXTREME COLD WARNINGS WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE MAKE SURE TO
REMEMBER TO PROTECT THE FOUR "P'S": PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES, AND
PLANTS, ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH A PROLONGED COLD EVENT ONGOING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
A COLD, DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND BEYOND, EASILY MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS. SCT-BKN CIRRUS
WILL INVADE THE SKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL, THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF CALM SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. BE READY FOR FROST AT SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH IT WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES ARE SUBSIDING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE CLOCKING AROUND OUT OF THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
SOME LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS WILL REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AS
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS A CONCERN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER,
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW, EXPECT FIRE CONCERNS TO DECREASE. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND LOW DISPERSIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OUR
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE
QUICK NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO MEDIUM (35-60%) RAIN
CHANCES BUT A LOW PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAINS. THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND A DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIRMASS WILL TAKE ITS
PLACE. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. WHILE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT FIRE
CONCERNS, WINDY CONDITIONS, FREQUENT OF 25 TO 30 MPH, AND RHS AROUND
30% COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY
AND POTENTIALLY SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THUS, NO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 27 54 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 31 54 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 28 51 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 27 51 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 25 54 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 23 57 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 29 52 34 54 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 9 AM EST
/8 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-115-118-127-
128-134-326-426.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ155>161.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...DVD
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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