891
FXUS62 KTAE 041124
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
624 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 619 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWING TODAY'S COLD FRONT.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. ABOUT 1/4" TO 3/4" OF RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH
A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE FOR RAINFALL EXCEEDING 1" ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (25-50%) CHANCE FOR A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY BEING NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
PATCHY TO DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH POPS
RANGING FROM 70-90%. THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN WITH A RANGE
OF ONE- QUARTER TO THREE- QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH PERHAPS ABOVE AN INCH OVER THE FL PANHANDLE; HOWEVER IT WON'T
BE ENOUGH TO REMEDY DROUGHT CONDITIONS. A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AS THAT WILL
BE THE LOCATION WITH THE MOST INSTABILITY BUT, STILL LOW AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID-60S THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE EASTERN FL
PANHANDLE. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30-50KTS AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN FOR TODAY'S
SYSTEM, AGAIN DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL
PASS THROUGH AS A BROKEN SQUALL LINE, WITH STRATIFORM SHOWERS
BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY LEADING TO
LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING. BEHIND THE SHOWERS, THE COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LEADING TO A SHARP CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEING IN THE LOW TO MID
30S, AND AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR THE FL SE BIG BEND. AS THE WINDS
WILL PICK UP A LITTLE FOLLOWING THE FRONT, WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, AND
MID-30S FOR THE SE BIG BEND.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR A FEW DAYS, AS
WE WILL BE CENTERED IN A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BRISK UPPER
LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S. WITH SURFACE WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH, WIND CHILLS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S THROUGH THE DAY. WE CAN EXPECT THE
COOLEST AIR TO SETTLE IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE LOW 20S. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR OUR FL
COUNTIES BECAUSE OF FORECAST WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW 25 DEGREES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, THEN CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE 70S AS WE BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BEGIN TO WARM INTO THE 40S BY THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES AFTER WEDNESDAY'S FRONT ARE
NIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
RAIN SHOWERS, LOW CIGS, AND EARLY-MORNING FOG ARE THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHTS THIS TAF PERIOD. THE LATEST LOCAL CAMS ALIGN FAIRLY
WELL WITH PRECIP TIMING. BANDS OF PRE-FRONTAL SHRA/-SHRA AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MOVE THRU THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN, FOLLOWED BY A
DROP TO IFR CIGS TOWARDS THE EVENING. RAIN EXITS TO THE EAST MOST
TERMINALS AFTER 0Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND TURN OUT OF THE NW FOLLOWING FROPA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO START LATER THIS EVENING WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AFTER A LULL THURSDAY
NIGHT, ADVISORY LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS MAY RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OUR MARINE ZONES WEST OF APALACHICOLA THEN SPREAD EASTWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, LEADING TO FAVORABLE/TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS BY
SUNDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
A WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS
SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 15-20 MPH BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. MINRH ON THURSDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S, AND UPPER 30S INTO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR AND THE EXTREME SE FL BIG BEND. DUE TO THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER, DISPERSIONS WILL BE POOR FOR MOST DISTRICTS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. THE EXTREME SE FL BIG BEND WILL HAVE GOOD
DISPERSIONS AHEAD OF THE RAIN. THURSDAY WILL HAVE EXCELLENT
DISPERSIONS ACROSS ALL DISTRICTS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MIXING
HEIGHTS AROUND 3500 FEET. WE WILL KEEP THE BREEZY TRANSPORT WINDS
ON FRIDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH AND VERY HIGH
DISPERSIONS FOR DISTRICTS NORTH OF I-10, AND EXCELLENT TO HIGH
DISPERSIONS FOR AREAS SOUTH. MINRH VALUES ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL AROUND 35-40%.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 235 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH TOTALS
RANGING FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE MAY RECEIVE ABOVE AN
INCH. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL, THE DROUGHT WILL STILL
BE ONGOING WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE AND EXTREME DROUGHT ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 63 38 52 31 / 80 70 0 0
PANAMA CITY 63 38 53 36 / 90 20 0 0
DOTHAN 61 33 50 29 / 90 10 0 0
ALBANY 60 35 51 28 / 90 50 0 0
VALDOSTA 63 37 52 29 / 70 70 0 0
CROSS CITY 67 40 56 30 / 20 70 10 0
APALACHICOLA 62 37 52 36 / 80 50 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ112-115.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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