516
FXUS62 KTAE 050009 CCA
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
709 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY FOR THE WATERS FROM THE OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE OUT
TO 60 NM. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL END TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. LOCALIZED
SPOTS MAY RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (25-50%) CHANCE FOR A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY BEING NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PASSING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. AS IT
CONTINUES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING, RAIN WILL FINISH EXITING THE
REGION, AND POST-FRONTAL STRATUS WILL FILL IN. THE STRATUS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY THURSDAY, EVEN LONGER ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED SO FAR AND REALLY
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS SO FAR.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL COME THROUGH THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT, MOISTURE WILL DEPLETE AS DEW POINT TEMPS TANK.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FOLLOWING THE FRONT BRINGING IN
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH COME THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS, WE GET CLOSE TO COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TOMORROW MORNING, MOSTLY IN THE FL
PANHANDLE. BUT IT ONLY WOULD BE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE 20S/30S TOMORROW MORNING. SIMILARLY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (25-50%) TO
REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS IN THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG
BEND, LESS OF A CHANCE IN AL/GA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
COOL TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RISE DURING THE WEEKEND AND MOVING INTO
NEXT WEEK. AN OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND,
PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. DRY AIR AND CALM WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THERE'S A LOW
(LESS THAN 20%) CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, CLEAR SKIES THIS WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR A
BREAK FORM THE COLD AS THE SURFACE IS ABLE TO HEAT UP TO THE UPPER
60S THIS WEEKEND AND AS WARM AS THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOVING INTO
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY PASSED DHN. THE FRONT WILL PASS THE
OTHER TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 1-4 HOURS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT
ANY REMAINING RAIN. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BKN-OVC POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS, WITH CIGS IN THE 010-015 RANGE MOSTLY. THAT STRATUS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN START TO EITHER LIFT AND/OR
SCATTER OUT AS A DRIER AIR MASS ARRIVES, DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO START LATER THIS EVENING WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AFTER A LULL THURSDAY NIGHT,
ADVISORY LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS MAY RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR OUR
MARINE ZONES WEST OF APALACHICOLA THEN SPREAD EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, LEADING TO FAVORABLE AND TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS BY
SUNDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT WITH DRIER, COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY. STRONG
TRANSPORT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS OF 3000-4000 FEET. THIS WILL YIELD GOOD
DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND. WHILE DRIER AIR DOES MOVE IN, RH VALUES ON
THURSDAY SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, DROPPING INTO
THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY BREEZY WITH TRANSPORT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST
AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 4000-5000 FEET. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE. RH VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
30S, BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY, BUT DISPERSIONS REMAIN HIGH GIVEN HIGH
MIXING HEIGHTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
OUTSIDE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT'S RAINFALL, LITTLE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS FORECAST. THIS WON'T RESULT IN ANY HYDROLOGIC
CONCERNS, NOR WOULD THE RAINFALL IMPROVE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 38 53 32 63 / 70 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 38 54 37 63 / 30 0 0 0
DOTHAN 34 50 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 35 51 28 61 / 30 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 38 52 30 62 / 80 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 41 57 31 61 / 90 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 38 53 37 61 / 70 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-115.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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