343
FXUS62 KTAE 050643
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
143 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS.
- THERE IS A LOW (<30%) CHANCE FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END AND THE COLD FRONT IS
COMPLETING ITS PASSAGE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BEFORE CLEARING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S FOR OUR SE AL AND SW GA COUNTIES. IT'LL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID-50S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, WIND CHILLS IN OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
COUNTIES WILL WARM TO THE MID-40S BY THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD
RETURNS FOR TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE REGION HOVERING AT OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EMERALD COAST WILL BE
RANGING AROUND THE MID- 30S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT
BUT STILL ENOUGH TO CREATE A WIND CHILL WITH VALUES IN THE
MID-20S. THERE IS A LOW (<30%) CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS TO REACH
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND,
AND AN EVEN LESSER CHANCE OF EXTENDING INTO AL/GA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TO
START THE LONG TERM. THE AIR WILL STILL BE DRY WITH PWATS AROUND
0.2", AND WE CAN EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE CLEAR
SKIES DURING THE DAY, AND THE FLATTENING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, THEN INCREASING TO THE LOW 70S FOR THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK, AND LOW-MID 70S BY MIDWEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO MODERATE WITH SATURDAY NIGHT BEING
AROUND FREEZING AGAIN, THEN WARMING INTO THE THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
BY MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS JUST TO OUR WEST AT THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE LONG TERM WHICH COULD BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND PROVIDE UPDATES AS
NECESSARY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
POST FRONTAL LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS MORNING,
THEN START TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT AS A DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, DIMINISHING AROUND
SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
EVENING, HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT. A LULL IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND PICK UP
AGAIN TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY
WINDS FOR MARINE ZONES MAINLY WEST OF APALACHICOLA. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, LEADING TO
FAVORABLE AND TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY THROUGH THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION AND SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TRANSPORT WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT
AROUND 15-20 MPH. DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD FOR THE AL AND GA
WIREGRASS REGION, AND HIGH FOR DISTRICTS ALONG THE I-10 AND I-75
CORRIDORS. FRIDAY WILL HAVE HIGH DISPERSIONS AREA WIDE (EXCEPT THE
EXTREME SE BIG BEND) WITH ELEVATED TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE WEST
RANGING 15-25 MPH. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE IN A DRIER ENVIRONMENT,
MINRH VALUES ARE ABOVE CRITICAL FOR BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY RANGING
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S% TO AROUND 50% ACROSS ALL DISTRICTS. MINRH
VALUES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID-30S% WITH TRANSPORT
WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH. DISPERSIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE MODERATE
TO GOOD FOR MOST DISTRICTS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
THERE ARE MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS; HENCE,
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN THAT WE HAD WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 52 32 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 54 37 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 50 29 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 51 29 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 51 29 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 56 31 61 43 / 10 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 52 36 61 46 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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