414
FXUS62 KTAE 052338
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
638 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE WATERS
WEST OF APALACHICOLA AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN
APALACHICOLA AND THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. CONDITIONS WILL BE
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD 70S
BACK IN THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
COLD. WARMER. POTENTIALLY STORMY AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THAT'S OUR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK IN A NUTSHELL.
A COOL NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES TUMBLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY MORNING. A BREATH OF WIND WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S. IT'LL BE VERY CLOSE TO COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES, OR WIND CHILLS BELOW 25
DEGREES, BUT WE'LL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE IT FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL,
SITES.
WESTERLY WINDS KICK UP FRIDAY AND WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF WARM-UP THAT
SEE DAYTIME HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. HOWEVER, IT WON'T
LAST LONG AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT COOLER
WEATHER FOLLOWS IT WITH ANOTHER BRIEF COOL SPELL OVER THE WEEKEND
THAT SEES WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE FORECAST AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THEN BUILDS AN H5 RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND INTO OUR
NECK-OF-THE-WOODS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL BRING A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING SURFACE
MOISTURE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDES AROUND THE RIDGE AND BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO HEAD OUR DIRECTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TIMING IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS, WITH A NUMBER OF THEM BEING
INFLUENCED BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY'S SYSTEM. SO, IN THE WORDS OF AL
FROM ANGELS IN THE OUTFIELD... WE'RE ALWAYS WATCHING. AND WE'LL
DEFINITELY WATCH NEXT WEEKEND'S SYSTEM AS IT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BRING IMPACTFUL WEATHER (RAIN/STORMS).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
THE BACK EDGE OF THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS WILL EXIT VLD IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE, A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A LACK OF ANY LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PICK ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT
DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL BECOME GUSTY ALMOST AS SOON AS THE
NIGHTTIME INVERSION BREAKS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. WESTERLY
GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THEY TURN MORE
WESTERLY. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AND TURNING
EASTERLY SUNDAY. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MINRH WILL GENERALLY
BE BETWEEN 35 TO 45 PERCENT FRIDAY BEFORE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DROPS MINRH VALUES TO BETWEEN 25 TO 35
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGH
DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH RATHER BREEZY WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AT 20 TO 30MPH.
NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS OF 15 TO 20MPH ARRIVE SATURDAY BEFORE
TURNING MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY. LOW DISPERSIONS ARE
FORECAST ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 139 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 31 65 43 61 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 38 64 44 63 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 29 64 39 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 29 63 38 58 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 30 64 40 60 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 30 63 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 37 62 45 60 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page